Research On Basic Pension Gap Based On Stochastic Population Forecast

As the development of science and technology and the improvement of life conditions, people’s mortality rate is declining and their life is being extended. This can affect the population structure of a country significantly. An obvious phenomenon is the rising portion of old people, which is the serious ageing problem. Because of the long-term implementation of family planning, China’s fertility rate has kept a lower level during the recent three decades, which has exacerbated the ageing problem. Ageing is one of the most important reasons that the gap of basic pension emerged and expanded, and some drawbacks of the pension regime made this problem worse. In this paper, we estimate the change of Chinese people’s mortality rate in future via augmented common factor model which is based on Lee-Carter model. We analysis the developing trend of fertility rate of Chinese population based on the actual data, and we conduct stochastic population forecast. According to the result of the population forecast and the current pension regime, we calculate the size of gap of basic pension. Besides, we analysis the reason why the problem has occurred, and we propose some policy suggestions.