The Forecast On Aging Population In China

In the21st century, the process of China’s population aging is accelerating ceaselessly. Aging problems more seriously affect our economy and society. It received more and more attentions.This thesis aims to study the effect of population aging on the world economy. The aging problems brought significant impact on the social and economic development, and aggravates the burden of the society. Therefore the aging problems have become the focus of the research in the world.In this paper, firstly we use factor analysis method, to remove the multilinearity among the variables. Then we are linear regression analysis method to obtain the derived by linear regression equation. Prediction and residual analysis are conducted.The result show that the model is of high precision, and could be used to make short-term prediction.Secondly we conduct the long term prediction of population aging. The grey system GM (1,1) model is choosen to conduct the analysis, the result show that the model can do long-term prediction. To achieve high precision, we propose two methods for improvement purpose. One is increasing the sequence length, which is called the new information model. The other is changing the initial conditions of the sequence, which is called the metabolic model. After comparison, we found that the metabolic model is with higher precision.This paper predict the aging population in China. It was found that China’s aging is very serious and is facing more severe problems. The prediction results show the impact of population aging on our society and economy. Finally, Several policy suggestion are provided for theoretical basis to solve the aging problems in the future.