Study On Financial Crisis Early-warning Of Small And Medium-sized Enterprise Board Of Listed Companies

Small and medium-sized enterprise board of listed companies is the driver ofeconomic development in our country,it plays an irreplaceable important role in thedevelopment of macro economy.But with the high-speed development of economy athome and abroad,No matter listed companies or not, and no matter main board oflisted companies or small and medium-sized enterprise board of listed companies, allfacing huge pressure of competition and different kinds of risk.One of the main causeis financial risk.Compared with the main board of listed companies,the ability ofsmall and medium-sized enterprise board to resist the financial crisis even worse.Thisis mainly because of the development time of small and medium-sized enterpriseboard is short, the ability to identify risk is poor, management mechanism is imperfectand unreasonable debt structure and so on.So,to establish a financial early-warningmodel which is suitable for small and medium-sized enterprise board of listedcompanies is very necessary. The companies will have enough time to establishcountermeasures before into financial risks.This paper choose20companies in financial crisis and40normal companies in2011and2010in small and medium-sized enterprise board to establish themodel.Then select6companies in financial crisis and12normal companies as thetest sample,we also choose14indicators of the cash flow.Finally,we establish theearly-warning model of the small and medium-sized enterprise board of listedcompanies based on cash flow and Logistic model.With this model, we predict thefinancial situation of2012and compare the result.Research shows that six indicators of cash flow plays a more prominent role inthe small and medium-sized enterprise board of listed companies’ financial warning,and they also has an importsnt contribution to the early-warning model.In addition,theprediction effect for2012,2011is better than2010; and the sufficient samplequantity prediction effect is better than the insufficient sample quantity prediction effect. In general, the Logistic model based on cash flow has great effect for small andmedium-sized enterprise board of listed companies’ financial crisis warning,In reallife,it also has important guiding significance for small and medium-sized enterpriseboard of listed company.