Civilian Aircraft Cost Estimation Model Research Based On Small Sample And Poor Information

The development and production of civil aircraft is a complex systematic engineering, and takeson some features such as a long development cycle, complex system composition, technicaldifficulties, uncertain factors, so it determines its huge development and manufacturing costs.However，the success of the civil aircraft development， not only reflected in the achievements oftechnology， but also needs to the success of the business and operations， therefore， effectivelycontrol development costs become one of the crucial part.The paper mainly studies the development cost estimation of the civil aircrafts, builds the civilaircraft cost factor index system, and focus on building the cost estimation models of the developmentstage and small batch production of civil aircrafts. Firstly, the content of the status of domestic andforeign civil aircraft cost estimates research is discussed with the basis of the study on relevantliterature, and the key characteristics index system of civil aircraft is made based on a depth analysisof the development process of civil aircraft, then, parameters is selected by using the grey incidenceanalysis and autocorrelation method. Secondly, the generating cost data of development stage andsmall batch production of civil aircraft based on survey data,missing data interpolation, DAPCA IVcost estimation model and partial least square are built. A civil aircraft fuselage development costestimation model based on GM (0, N) model and BP neural network is built, and other civil aircraftfuselage development cost estimation model based on partial least square method is built, consideringthat the other parameters unchanged, the function relationship between the influencing factors and thedevelopment cost is constructed, and using the function relationship we have got to analysis thesensitivity of the influence factors. Thirdly, focusing on aircraft engine system to study theprocurement cost, build engine development costs comprehensive estimate model based on DAPCAIV by adding more explanatory variables and obtain the civil aircraft engine production cost, the civilaircraft body labor cost, material cost and other key indicators of fixed DAPCA IV cost estimationmodel after calculation. Based on the actual data to carry on the empirical analysis, verified theaccuracy and effectiveness of the proposed model. Finally, using GUI interface design of the Mat-lab,civil aircraft cost estimation system was preliminarily realized. This article has important referencevalue to the cost estimation and management of the development of civil aircraft of our country.