An Empirical Analysis Of Chinese Inbound Tourism Foreign Exchange Earnings Impact Determinants

On October1,2013, Tourism Law of the People’s Republic of China_was officially promulgated and implemented, which is beneficial not only to set the order of tourist market and to create a fair competitive environment, but also to call operators’attention to service quality and consumers’recognition on the service value. It also helps China to set a good destination image in the international tourism market. The over30years’reform and open-door witnessed a rapid growth in Chinese inbound tourism which is reflected in the successive rise of inbound tourists numbers and tourism foreign exchange earnings. According to statistics of the CNTA, during January to December,2012the inbound tourists to mainland China reached132.4million bringing about a revenue of USD (?)50billion. Ranking the4th in the world. WTO forecasts that China will be the largest tourism destination in the world by2020.This forecasts a greater development potential for Chinese inbound tourism in the international tourism market, and which highlights the value and significance of this research. Using econometrics principles to select variables and using a quantitative method, this research aims to analyze the factors influencing China inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings, hopefully to provide reasonable recommendations for enlarging our market share internationally and enhance our competitiveness in the international tourism market and as well help government policy-making relevant to inbound tourism development.This thesis is divided into five parts altogether. The first part, a systematic review on inbound tourism and foreign currency income related research at home and abroad. The second part, definitions and concepts related to the research:tourism, inbound tourism, inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings, and as well analysis on the current situation of the development of inbound tourism in China in recent years, and the development situation of inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings. The third part, a preliminary analysis on the related factors influencing China’s inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings, and selection of five variables for this research. The fourth part, analysis on the data of China inbounds tourist foreign exchange income and its components1978-2013collected from the databases of "China Tourism Statistical Yearbook", and "China Statistical Summary". An empirical analysis is conducted on the factors influencing China’s inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings, using econometrics theory as principles to select variables and using the EVIEWS6.0software to process data, so as to come up with reasonable economic interpretation. Research findings show that factors most influencing China’s inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings include number of inbound overnight tourists, international routes, and number of inbound tourists, exchange rate, and the CPI index. Results show that China international routes mileage and inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings are positively related, namely, when the international routes mileage increases, inbound tourist foreign exchange earnings increase, and vice versa. This research also analyzed the present consumption structure of inbound tourism in our country. The fifth part, in response to the conclusion reached with above empirical analysis discusses the existing problems and challenges in the inbound tourism in China as well as the market competition environment and opportunities, and provides suggestions and recommendations to the promotion of capability of inbound tourist foreign exchange earnings, and sustainable and healthy development of tourism industry.