The Ontimal Path Of Gradual Citizenization:the Model Improvement And Numerical Simulation

This paper focuses on the fact that few existing government public welfare supply literature takes the general condition of "gradual citizenization" into the analytical framework, we establish a theoretical model according to the reform policies of gradual citizenization and simulate the evolution path of rural migrants’ citizenization and the optimal path of gradual citizenization.Firstly, we analyze the welfare division status of China under the dual household registration system and its influence on the will of settlement. Through the analysis of the current situation and the empirical analysis, it shows that the public welfare can significantly increase the citizenization of rural migrants, which verifies the public welfare segmentation greatly influences China’s urbanization process.Secondly, we improve the endogenous policy change model of the two extreme cases of urban development and social integration by Liu Xiaofeng, Chen Zhao, Lu Ming (2010), we introduce proxy variable of gradual citizenization on the basis of the original text, to built a general model of city government public welfare supply. And based on this model we analyzes the influence of different citizenization level on citizen income and output, namely:(1) In the short term the citizen income reduce, long-term uncertainty;(2) And has a positive impact on output both short-term and long-term.In the end we carry on the numerical simulation with MATLAB, analysis the evolution path under different degree of welfare policy, and conclude the optimal path of gradual citizenization from short-term to long-term. Namely:(1) in the short term, the degree of public welfare supply equilibrium to rural migrant workers is less ξ∈[0,0.4);(2) In medium and long term, city government will gradually increase the degree of public welfare supply of migrant workers. When the urbanization level is ξ=0.6or so, citizen income is almost higher than that of completely citizenization. Along with the degree increasing from0.6to0.8, residents income continues to increase,ξ=0.8is one of evolution path of the largest citizen income;(3) The degree of citizenization will remain between0.8and1.0for a long time. The optimal path is not a short-term completely welfare discrimination and equal distribution of benefits of long-term, but "the gradual complete citizenization" situation balanced the economic growth, the residents income and social harmony.