| Grain logistics industry is the basic industry to ensure national food security and economic development, whose development has been placed at a height of national strategy and can’t be undermined in any period. "Four bulks mode" of grain logistics refers to "bulk storage, bulk transport, bulk loading, bulk unloading". The mode has become the main development trend of China’s grain logistics and the important part of China’s 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15) for its positive role in improving grain logistics efficiency, saving the expenditure on grain logistics, reduce the loss of grain logistics, etc. However, Fujian Province currently depends greatly on the traditional package mode in the process of grain logistics. "Four bulks mode" operating ratio in Fujian Province is lower than the national average, belonging to the backward one in China’s coastal areas by 2012. In 2007, Fujian Development and Reform Commission and Fujian Provincial Grain Administration issued a document setting "four bulks mode" project planning targets for Fujian Province, which is the background of this paper. The main targets are the proportion of the provincial bulk grain logistics will reach more than 50%, and the proportion of the bulk grain logistics into Fujian Province by water will be 80%, initially achieving the goal of building the "four bulks mode" modern grain logistics in Fujian Province. But some problems still exist in current project building and there is much to do to achieve the project goals.In order integrate with the goals of building modern grain logistics in our country which mainly depends on grain bulk loading logistics, advancing coordinated and sustainable development of grain logistics "four bulks mode" building in Fujian Province, to enhance food security and grain industry competitiveness in Fujian Province, the thesis presents the advantages and two key issues in promoting the project, namely lack of predicting the target amount of logistics and project supporting infrastructure in the future, which are based on classifying and analyzing Fujian grain logistics information and data over the years, exploring the development status of the "four bulks mode" project in Fujian Province in the light of the logistics flow and flow direction. The method used in this thesis combines normative analysis and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. A large number of references, visits to Fujian Provincial Grain Administration, Fuzhou Central Grain Depot, Quanzhou China Food City and Xiamen Zhaoyin Port to contribute to the thesis writing. In view of the factors, this thesis establishes the nonlinear combination forecasting method based on BP neural network to predict the target amount of the provincial grain bulk loading logistics and the target amount of the grain bulk loading logistics into Fujian Province by water over the next five years according to the proportion of quantitative indicators and the fitting test was used to inspect the prediction. Meanwhile, this thesis proposes the construction of the supporting infrastructure for "four bulks mode" of grain logistics in Fujian Province, including major grain bulk loading logistics facilities and the development of a variety of grain bulk loading logistics transport modes. Moreover, with the guide and co-ordination of the government, technical and financial support, nurturing leading enterprises and personnel training, measures are to be taken to further promote "four bulks mode" project of grain logistics in Fujian Province. |