Research On The Mechanism Of New Urbanization Based On Var Modle

New urbanization is an important starting point of China’s structural adjustment, isto expand domestic demand in the greatest potential, is the fundamental way to achieve economic integration in urban and rural areas development, is also the route one must take the realization of socialist modernization construction. At present our country is in the middle stage of accelerated development of construction urbanization, increasing urbanization construction, the construction level and quality is obviously improved, the urbanization has become an important phenomenon in China’s economic and social development, to solve many existing contradictions and problems, will promote the rapid benefited from China’s urbanization. In order to speed up the process of urbanization, we need to play better the dynamic mechanism, restriction mechanism of change. Only by increasing the analysis and evaluation on dynamic mechanism and model of urban, is more conducive to around the reference, find suitable local development model of urbanization.The dynamic mechanism of new urbanization is in the process of urbanization development, because of the interaction of various social factors, economic factors, demographicfactors, cause, maintain, strengthen, deepen, Guanghua orcomprehensive ef fect of transforming the urbanization process and its effectunder the condition of certain way.Based on the VAR model as the theoretical basis, from the dynamic factors of Qingdao new urbanization, based on statistical data from 1990 to 2013 in Qingdao, by using unit root test, Granger causality test, stability test, impulse response function and variance decomposition of econometric analysis methods to analyze dynamic mechanism of urbanization in Qingdao. Thesis mainly from the following five parts are studied.(1) This paper introduces the related concepts of urbanization, urbanization, new urbanization, the urbanization and new dynamic mechanism of related theory, motivation mechanism for constructing the new urbanization of Qingdao theoretical basis.(2)Analyze the general situation and development of urbanization in the Qingdao new features, and then from the government policy, economic development, industrial structure, economic globalization from four aspects of qualitative research, it means a deep analysis to the Qingdao new urbanization influence, ready for further quantitative analysis.(3) The system introduces the related theory of VAR model, built in conformity with the practical situation of Qingdao new model of the dynamic mechanism of urbanization.(4)Based on VAR model, based on Qingdao historical statistical data, using the unit root test, Granger causality test, stability test, impulse response function and variance decomposition of econometric analysis method for the Qingdao new quantitative study on dynamic mechanism of urbanization. The following conclusions: the government policy is the driving force, in the short term can rapidly improve the rate of urbanization; Economic development is the endogenous power, is the engine of urbanization; The third industry is the core power, and the third industry play a role in decline; Economic globalization is accelerating, promote the development of the urbanization.(5) According to the result of VAR model, put forward the countermeasure and the suggestion accord with the actual situation of Qingdao, and points out the shortcomings of this paper and problems to be solved.