Study On Trade Flow And Export Potential In China’s Manufacturing

Manufacturing is the pillar of the national economy development and is an important symbol to measure a country’s international competitiveness. The highly developed manufacturing plays an important role in a country’s economic improvement. With the evolution of China’s reform and opening up and the implementation of "going out" strategy, China’s manufacturing plays an obvious role in promoting the development of economic, and so is the export trade of manufacturing industry. With more than 30 years of reform and opening-up, our manufacturing industry developed rapidly and manufacturing products are increasingly produced and expanded. In the industrial era of "4.0" and introduction of “China’s manufacturing plan in 2025”, the study of potential of China’s manufacturing export and trade flow has a certain practical significance.This paper makes estimation of trade flow and export potential in China’s manufacturing from empirical demonstration. The first chapter is introduction, which mainly introduced the background of the potential of manufacture export and the significance, literature review, research methods employed and research ideas, innovations and inadequate etc. The second chapter is the overview of Gravity Model; it synthesizes and provides comments on the development of Gravity Model. The third part is using the export data of manufacturing to 20 countries like USA and Canada from 2000 to 2013, and this paper introduces the current situation of the development of manufacturing in our country at present in aspect of total export, structure of export and competitiveness of manufacturing exports to carry on the analysis. Then, considering the export structure, this paper makes a study from the geographical and sector overview. Specific segments of the export structure of the industry has conducted, which is divided into the labor-intensive manufacturing, capital-intensive manufacturing and technology-intensive manufacturing, and then this paper makes specific analysis of the three categories of industry-specific.The empirical analysis are studied on the potential estimation of manufacturing exports from country and industry. Using the 14 years panel data for regression, the results show that the potential of manufacturing in Canada, Australia, Italy and other countries is large, namely trade shortage country, and USA, Nether land, Hong Kong and other countries and regions have little potential for manufacturing export, which means over trading. Besides, this paper put forward some relevant policy suggestions like digging the potential of manufacture export trade and maintaining sustainable growth of some country and sector according to the research conclusion.After the the global financial crisis triggered by sub-prime mortgage crisis, various countries have realized the importance of the real economy, and the most important industry of the real economy is manufacturing. Therefore, the research of manufacturing industry of our country export trade flow and the estimate of future development contribute to evaluate the correct evaluation of the international status of our manufacturing industry.