Study On The Influencing Factors Of China’s Agricultural Export To Asean Based On Trade Gravity Model

The bilateral agricultural cooperation between China and ASEAN has a rapid development since the implementation of the "Early Harvest Program", the signing of <Agreement on trade in goods> and the start of CAFTA, But China’s agricultural trade with ASEAN has been in a state of deficit. The study on the influencing factors of China’s agricultural export to ASEAN, not only can change the present situation, but also can adjust the our agricultural structure to adapt to the new international political and economic environment, to promote the bilateral agricultural trade.Firstly, this paper analyses the overall structure of bilateral agricultural trade and shows that:bilateral agricultural trade has developed rapidly, the degree of intra-industry trade is relatively high, but the agricultural export advantage is not obvious as to the calculating of RCA and TC. Then select the 2000-2012 panel data of China’s agricultural export to ASEAN based on Mechanism analysis, After stationary test and co integration test, making an empirical research by expanded gravity model of trade:the bilateral GDP and the difference of national scale have positive effect, but China’s HUT is not high, Institutional distance and shipping distance between China and ASEAN hinder the export of China’s agricultural products as expect; TCI of bilateral agricultural trade has obvious influence on the agricultural product of HS16-24; the fluctuation of exchange rate has inhibition on the agricultural product of HS07 obviously. Finally, according to relevant theories,the empirical analysis and mechanism analysis, this paper puts forward suggestions from the following aspects:to promote agricultural intra-industry trade; to optimize the structure of China’s agricultural export; to strengthen the construction of institution and exchange rate;improve the capacity of agricultural logistics.