Evaluation And Prevention Reseach On Export Trade Risk For Agricultural Products Of CAFTA

Our country is a big agricultural trade country, export trade of agricultural products is crucial to the development of our country’s economy. Since the establishment of CAFTA and the gradual cancel of tariffs on agricultural products, there has been a sharp increase in the value of our agricultural exports to members of ASEAN, also ASEAN becomes an important agricultural trade partner and an export market of agricultural products. The expansion of export trade scale, On one hand, providing a broader market and development opportunities for China’s agricultural export trade, but on the other hand, facing more risks for China’s agricultural export trade, affecting the smooth development of export trade of agricultural products. Thus we should have reasonable understanding of trade risks and try to avoid them, thereby reducing the economic losses of our country’s export trade of agricultural products and getting more profits.This article takes the trade risk of agricultural export from our country to ASEAN countries as the main research object and borrows the theory of risk, trade risk, Analytic hierarchy process and some related ones. It is on the basis of the situation and analysis of our country’s agricultural export trade to ASEAN countries and starts from two aspects of macroscopic and microscopic to make a comprehensive and specific elaboration for risks which agricultural export trade may face, it uses the AHP method to quantitatively analyze every factor that can affect on the risk of agricultural export trade, build factor index system and logistics risk assessment models of China’s agricultural export trade to the ASEAN countries. Then make a stratified and quantitative analysis to the non-quantitative factors, integrate advice of related specialist, give weight to the risk indicator of China’s agricultural export trade to ASEAN countries, and assess the influence degree of various risk factor of our country’s agricultural export trade to ASEAN countries. According to the evaluated result by the Analytic hierarchy process, the article comes to the conclusion trade policies, customs clearance risks, processes of the contract, changes of political situation, quality of agricultural products, changes of the price of agricultural products, technology of transport, social and cultural differences and so on are main risk factors in export trade of agricultural products, thereby Puts forward the countermeasures to prevent the risks of Chinese agricultural exports trade to ASEAN countries in macroscopic and microscopic.