The Dynamic Relationship Between Housing Consumption And Housing Stock,

Since the launch of the Reform of the Housing System in1998, the housing market of China started to develop rapidly and has been keeping prosperous for over a decade. Large quantities of housing consumer demand emerged while the housing stock is increasing likewise. The dynamic relationship of housing consumption and housing stock is different in different areas. Housing market in some cities is in a situation that demand exceeds supply while in other cities, housing market become saturated and house sales slow down and housing vacancy appear. Furthermore, demographer points out that the population is approaching maximum and is about to decline gradually when housing surplus would appear in some cities. The dynamic balance of housing consumption scale and housing stock scale is the foundation that keeps the housing market stable and healthy in the long run and quantized relationship of the two is the priority that needs study.From the perspective of demand and supply, this paper made a forecast of housing consumption and housing stock. On one hand, this paper analyzed the demographic situation of Zhejiang province and built up a model to measure housing consumption and made a forecast of urban housing consumption of Zhejiang from year2010to2050. On the other hand, the paper sorted the urban housing stock system of Zhejiang province and analyzed the supply of each category and made a forecast of urban housing stock of Zhejiang from year2010to2050. Finally, this paper combined housing consumption with housing stock and analyzed saturation level of housing.The results shows that first, the whole population of Zhejiang will increase shorly to its peak and keep droping thereafter, taking on a inverted U shape. The peak will appear in2020. Second, the urban housing demand of Zhejiang will increase sharply and then drop moderately. The peak will appear in2036and is about17.81million square meters. Third, the urban housing stock of Zhejiang is about11.84million square meters in2010and it will rise to23.3million sqare meters in2050if the historical supply speed is kept. Fourth, the urban housing is going to saturate in2031which means that there will be housing shortage for the next 20years.