Study On Reasonable Scale Of Cultivated Land In Rapid Urbanization Process

Urbanization is the inevitable trend of national or regional modernization and the necessary way of the developing countries and regions to get rid of their poverty. The accelerating urbanization process will inevitably lead to the spatial scale unceasing expansion. Nearly half a century, with the continuous development of economy and the acceleration of urbanization process, urban construction land spatial development has become one of the most prominent feature in the process of land use cover change. As the biggest developing country in the world, our country has the largest population in the world, but the arable land is relatively scarce. Having feed19%of the world’s population while we have only7.2%of the world’s arable land, so the arable land are bearing a huge pressure. The expansion of urban land further exacerbate the already tense contradiction between supply and demand of cultivated land. The cultivated land protection has become one of the important factors that affects China’s social and economic sustainable development.Wu Yi county is located in the central of north China plain. Cultivated land is the national important grain production base which takes66.52percent of the total area of land. In recent years, a series of issues such as urban sprawl and cultivated land decline caused by accelerated urbanization have brought prominent contradiction to man-land. The constant decrement of cultivated land area will pose a threat to people’s food supply, so the scale of arable land to ensure the rapid urbanization development and the people’s food demand is a serious problem to be solved at present.The correlation study of the cultivated land change and urbanization rate to Wu Yi county has been conducted through the pearson correlation coefficient from1997to2011. On the basis of a strong correlation between the two factors, through the Visual Basic and SPSS, we respectively attempt the weighted markov chain method to fit the change laws of cultivated land and attempt multivariable linear regression method to analysis the correlation between urbanization level and cultivated land area, and then predict the cultivated land area of Wu Yi county in2015. Finally, we take account of "construction" and "food" and determine Wu Yi county’s cultivated land scale reasonable threshold in2015. The final conclusion is as follows:(1) In15years, the cultivated land area of Wu Yi county has experienced a "slow increase-increased dramatically-slow decrease" between1997and2011while the urbanization level is rising at a constant speed in a linear form.(2) Wu Yi county urbanization rate has a significant impact on the change of cultivated land area. There is a significant correlation between arable land decrease and urban construction area expansion, and the pearson correlation coefficients is0.895. GDP, urban population, urban per capita disposable income, urban per capita construction land area and the area of the built up area all have a significant impact on cultivated land area changes.(3) In considering the speed of the urbanization development, the county’s population rations and commodity grain sales, we ultimately determine the Wu Yi county’s cultivated land reasonable scale threshold in2015is between51509.18hm2and53988.56hm2.