Research On The Investment Decision Of Wind Power Project Development In Jilin Province Under The Situation Of Curtailment

As the rapid development of the social economy, Energy consumption continues to increase, with its attendant pollution of the ecological environment, Of human social and economic development and human health survival, it has caused irreversible impact. While the wind power, the inexhaustible and clean energy, has gradually become the mainstream of renewable energy power generation, and it will continuously play a role on the significant strategic choice of world’s and Chinese energy development. China owns vast territories and abundant wind power resources. Since 2004, wind power industry has achieved the leapfrog development, meanwhile, the wind power curtailment problem has become increasingly prominent, and which is hard to be alleviated or eliminated in a certain period. Based on the extensive documentation and the essential data, analyzing Chinese wind power’s history and current situation and strategic deployment of wind power development in the future, the paper indicates that the wind power should be promoted and get achieved the rapid development as the key supported project of clean energy. And on the other hand, the features of wind power resource and current situations of industry chain show that the wind power curtailment can’t be eliminated in a short time. Facing the opportunities and challenges of wind power development in the certain period, the enterprise should not only keep the sustainable and healthy development, but also prevent the investment risk. With a view to the background of the current serious wind power curtailment situation, and with the help of risk management theories and researches of domestic and overseas, the paper studies and proposes a decision scheme on how to make a investment decision on the development of the wind power when the enterprise confronts the contradiction of high quality resources and wind power curtailment risks. The decision scheme provides the enterprise with a system method of typical risk analysis and investment decision realization when facing the wind power curtailment. Taking Jilin province for example, the most serious wind power curtailment situation, the paper studies the situation and reasons of wind power curtailment in Jilin province and analyzes the external and internal environment of enterprise with the PEST and SWOT typical risk identification and analyzing methods, and at the same time, it also studies the opportunities and challenges of wind power project investment in Jilin Province, proposes the risk factors of wind power project investment, and explicates which factors can influence the enterprise, what the main risk factors are, and the development tendency of main risk factors. Based on the risk identification and wind power project industry feature, the paper tries to adopt the method of dynamic balance profit analysis and system evaluation method of sensitivity analysis which is based on the sensitivity factors formed by wind power curtailment to determine the internal rate of return(IRR) as the key evaluation index, and effectively analyze the amount variation of curtailment ratio as the variable value which stands for the amount variation of the key sensitivity factor to the influence of investment efficiency and risk boundary value of investment decision, which can give an instruction to the enterprise in making an investment decision. Under the principle of the balance of power supply and demand in the regional power grid, achieving load data, planning data, and disposition of power source by investigation and looking up the related documentation, the paper calculates curtailment ratio in future years according to certain evaluation planning, and compares that with the achievement of sensitivity analysis, then confirms the conclusion of final investment decision. Taking a certain 50 MW wind power project invested by A company in Jilin Province for example, this paper combines the investment situation of project with the above system analysis methods to do the investment decision empirical analysis. With this research on quantitative and qualitative investment decision method based on risk identification and evaluation analysis, the paper wishes to provide the systematic scheme of investment decision for the enterprises, and render the enterprises help and support for optimizing industrial distribution and realizing the healthy and sustainable development.