Research On Electric Risk Transmission On Generation And Consumption Of Important Consumers With Electric Source

In the future of smart grid, Important consumers with stand-by electric source will have a dual position that they are both users and suppliers of secondary energy and power service when electric source is accessed to trading with power company. Power company’s original risk management system is ill-prepared to meet the new risk due to the change. In order to protect the interests of consumers and power company, it is necessary for power company to do research on the risk of consumers power generation and consumption.Based on the new risk that consumers with electric source bring about, this paper discusses the new risk from aspects of risk decision-making and economic evaluation for electric source investment, consumers power generation risk and consumers power consumption risk. Firstly, choose distributed generation as the investment program that consumers establish their own electric source. According to economic benefits index and environmental benefits index, construct a risk decision-making model based on grey relevancy and cumulative prospect theory to find the optimal investment program. Drawing on the theory of risk elements transmission, set economic evaluation index as risk elements, construct risk transmission model of the optimal program, and analysis economic benefits. Secondly, propose two power generation risk transmission paths: straight path and hierarchical path. Separately on both paths use Markov and improved ant colony algorithm to simulate transmission process, calculate the losses because of risk transmission, and give strategies from different angles. Finally, analyze consumers power consumption bi-directional risk transmission. On the basis of satisfying incentive compatibility theory, put forward an interruptible load management optimization model based on consumers power consumption risk, which is suitable for different optimization goal. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the process that power supply company analyzes load distribution due to consumer risk, which proves that only with reporting real power consumption risk will consumers obtain the maximum expected profit.