The Research On The Grain Feasible Potentiality And Food Security Of Henan Province Based On Test Data

Henan Province became the largest grain producer in China in 2000,reaching a yield one tenth of national total with merely one sixteenth of national cultivated land. The yield has exceeded 50 billion kilograms continuously for 9 years, the grain production is increased constantly,also,realize the maximum potential to make a greater contribution to national food stability as well as research on food safety in Henan Province.A project of soil testing for formulated fertilization was started in Henan in 2005 and promoted by model testing regions in each county(city or district).Abundant data in the province were obtained on per unit yield of wheat,corn or rice with no fertilization, normal fertilization and optimal fertilization. These data can be an objective reflection of potential production in Henan Province.Firstly,based on geostatistics and semivariance methods,this paper calculated trial semivariance and fitted theoretical model for wheat,corn or rice seperately using the data of Henan.Per unit yield in each region was obtained using Kriging interpolation of sample data;Correlation analysis was conducted between evaluation scores and average per unit yield of each county to testify the reliability of results;Potential production was revised to calculate realizable yield in current sowing condition.By furtherly camparing with practical yield,increase potential was obtained.Besides, population and grain demand in Henan were predicted in 2015-2020 on the base of food safety evaluation in 1994-2012 and food safety condition in the future was assessed in 2 kinds of context.Finally, strategies were put forward on transferring realizable yield to practical yield.Results were as follows:(1) Space variation coefficients of wheat,corn and rice were between 0.1-1.0 by traditional statistical theory analysis,which was a moderate variability and test data were normal distributed;the average per capita yield of wheat,corn and rice reached to 7169.7kg/ hm2、8195.1kg/ hm2 and 8234.5kg/ hm2 under trial conditions.(2)By 4 various theoretical models fitting and further comparing,linear model turned out to be optimal for wheat and Gaussian model for both corn and rice.(3)Realizable yield of wheat,corn and rice were 7027.55kg/ hm2、8038.36 kg/ hm2 and 8280.17 kg/ hm2 seperately;Current realizable increase potential was 75.9861 million tons, increasing by 32.99 percent,that is 18.8492 tons,compared with grain yield in 2012.Meanwhile per capita yield in summer and autumn presented a positive correlation, testifying the accuracy of each other.Potential yield increase regions were San Menxia City,Luoyang City,Ping Dingshan City ang Zhengzhou City,whose increase space exceeded 50 percent.(4)Food safety in 2015-2020 in Henan can be a affluent consumption level from the view of realizable yield potential while merely a better-off level from the practical yield capacity, still having a long way to be affluent.