The Research On Forecasting Method Of The Final Demand Structure Based On The Input Output Table

The final demand is the basic part of the input-output table.It includes the final consumption,the capital formation and the net export which are three carriages to promote the economic.Forecasting the final demand is the base of the forecasting analysis based on input-output tables.In recent years,more and more researches about economic forecasting are based on input-output tables.But,in the predicting academic and the input-output analysis academic,there is no system research on the final demand as a whole.The dissertation firstly discusses the characteristics of five kinds of economic forecasting methods used commonly,putting forward the idea integrating these methods for the final demand forecast;then,on the base of the sector structure of the input-output table,the dissertation raises the prediction model of whole to part,discussing the method to predict the final demand of three sectors,six sectors and seventeen sectors.Firstly,the dissertation predicts the final consumption.Dividing the final consumption into the consumption of rural,urban residents and the government,the chapter designs the prediction methods of three kinds of consumption.Then,according to the input-output tables,the chapter analyzes the tendency of the structure.At last,it makes the structure forecasting of the final demand on the basic of the amount and the structure of secters.Secondly,the dissertation predicts the capital formation.Dividing the capital formation into the fixed capital formation and the inventory increased,this chapter designs the prediction methods of the amount of the fixed capital formation and the increase of stock first of all.Then,it predicts the structure of the capital formation according to the amount and the structure characteristics.Finally,the dissertation predicts the import and export.the chapter designs the prediction methods of the total export and the total export firstly.Then,it distributes them to each department according to the proportion.In the study of other scholars on the final demand,they only consider it as a whole.So,it has important theoretical and applied significance on product industrial structure of the final demand.