A Study On The Self-sufficiency Rate Of Rapeseed Oil In Yunnan Province

Yunnan province as one of the largest province of the main consumption area of the traditional oil consumption, its rapeseed oil consumption is accounted for 80% of edible vegetable oil, and it is the largest edible oil source in Yunnan province. However, at present, the edible vegetable oil self-sufficiency rate of Yunnan province is less than 40%, the rapeseed oil self-sufficiency rate is only hit nearly 45%, it highlights the grim situation of the province edible oil supply security. The province’s oil supply will directly affect the edible oil supply security, and it will be related to the “oil bottle” safety of nearly 47 million populations.Based on the above realistic background, firstly, this paper attempts to analyze and summarize the planting area, yield, production of rapeseed and the situation of supply and demand of rapeseed oil in Yunnan province over the past decade. The research shows that the current situation of supply and demand of rapeseed oil in Yunnan province is in nervous condition; its self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil is about 45%; rapeseed oil production is not sufficient and the gap between supply and demand is large, and consumption is two times of supply. Secondly, the influence factors of rapeseed oil self-sufficiency rate in Yunnan province is analyzed in this paper. The study found that the main factors caused low rapeseed oil self-sufficiency rate is that the total yield of rapeseed is low which can’t meet the demand of consumption; the increase in the total population and urbanization speed; the improvement of people’s living standards and the change of consumption ideas. Then with the average development speed as an index and use Excel tool to forecast the rapeseed oil supply in Yunnan province from 2014 to 2020, and use the Block Logistic population growth model to forecast the population in Yunnan province from 2014 to 2020. Later, the rapeseed oil consumption of this stage is forecasted and to estimate the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan province from 2014 to 2020. The calculated results show that the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in the next few years will be improved compared with the current situation, and its self-sufficiency rate will reach 60% in 2020.The main research conclusions in this paper are as follows: to sum up, the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil from 2000 to 2013 in Yunnan province was in a rising trend, but slowly in growth, and the situation of rapeseed oil supply is not optimistic, and the consumption is two times of supply and self-sufficiency rate is about 45%; The greatest influence on the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil is the increase of population, accelerating the pace of urbanization residents’ consumption concept changes and other factors. The forecast results show that although the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan province from 2014 to 2020 will be improved compared with the present situation, but it is still not high and the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil will only hit nearly 60% in 2020.