Study On The Chinese Rural Household Commercial Energy Consumption And Its Influence Factors

Our country is a large agricultural country, rural people is about 642 million in 2012, accounting for 47.43% of the population. The development of the rural areas needs more attention. Energy is a necessary material in rural life, and has a great influence on the quality of life, the rural economic development, rural environmental problems. In order to let people know more of the energy cost of rural China, and ensure the effective development of rural energy cost, this paper mainly focus on the rural household commercial energy consumption, respectively from the spatial and temporal changes of rural household energy consumption, the factors of energy consumption, and the comprehensive evaluation to energy consumption. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:This paper selects the relevant data from 1995 to 2012, and transforms the energy consumption into standard coal form, then sums them up to get the total rural household commercial energy consumption. China’s rural household commercial energy consumption and per capita energy consumption continue to increase during these years, and per capita energy consumption rises faster than the household commercial energy consumption. Rural household commercial energy mainly consists of coal, electricity and oil. The proportion of coal consumption continues to decline, while the proportion of electricity and oil consumption continue to rise during these years. But the coal consumption still occupies the status of the energy consumption. The rural household commercial energy consumption in the middle-east is more than in the western regions. Area rich in energy consumption cost more energy than other regions. The rural household commercial energy consumption in economically developed areas is greater than other areas. The center of rural household commercial energy consumption shifts to the northeast, and the east offset is bigger than the north drift.For the analysis of the influencing factors of the rural household commercial energy, this paper mainly focuses five factors: per capita net income, the price of energy, the level of urbanization, the population and the structure of energy consumption. In order to examine the impact of various factors, this paper establishes vector auto regression model. From the exams, this paper finds rural per capita net income, energy price, the level of urbanization, rural population, energy consumption structure and the energy consumption are non-stationary series, meanwhile, they are all the same order. Through the test, there have the stable vector auto regression between energy consumption and the influencing factors, per capita net income, energy price, urbanization level, rural population. Meanwhile, the per capita net income, energy price, urbanization level, rural population, all have important influence on rural household commercial energy consumption. The rural population has the largest influence on energy consumption, while the influence of urbanization level is lest. This paper also analyzes the elasticity coefficient of energy consumption to various factors. The elasticity coefficient of energy consumption to rural people is always bigger than 1. The elasticity coefficient of energy consumption to per capita net income is in a constant state of decline, while the elasticity coefficient of energy consumption to energy price is in a constant state of increase.Finally, this paper, from four aspects of society, economy, technology and environment, selects nine indicators to evaluate the rural household commercial energy consumption. The nine indicators include household consumption, per capita net income, the forest coverage rate, CO2 per capita emission, per capita energy consumption, energy intensity, per capita electricity consumption and energy consumption structure. Using the principal component analysis, factor analysis and entropy method, this paper gets comprehensive evaluation index of rural household commercial energy consumption. The comprehensive evaluation index shows a trend of rising, and rises faster.