Research On Potential Of Chinese Agricultural Products Trade Along The Silk Road Economic Zone

China is a giant agricultural country and also a big trading country. Since joining the WTO,China’s agricultural products trade grows rapidly and has become an important part of China’s foreign trade.China’s agricultural products trade exists opportunities but also challenges,that is a rapid increase in trade volume and the balance is also growing.It is mainly because that China’s agricultural products export concentrated in a few countries and regions, agricultural products export growth space is very limited and the terms of trade begins to develop in the adverse direction.Facing the current situation,China needs to find a new target from a new location and take the right strategy to explore emerging international markets to ensure the sustainable and stable development of China’s agricultural products trade.“Silk Road ”,as ancient Chinese logistics network,has a positive role in promoting civilization exchanges and trade contacts between the East and the West.Currently,China puts forward the strategic concept of “Silk Road Economic Zone” construction.This not only extends the silk road history miracle but also opens the strategic thoroughfare of countries in Asia and Europe,providing a strong support for China to further expand international agricultural products market.Firstly,this paper analyses the general situation of agricultural products trade between China and the countries along the silk road economic zone from the view of trade general characteristics,trade structure and market distribution based on the trade data from 2000 to 2013.Results show that agricultural products trade between China and the countries along the silk road economic zone is growing rapidly,while the trade scale is small and the regional cooperation is unbalanced.The types of agricultural products exported or imported and trade markets are concentratted and the trade of agricultural products are complementary.Secondly,this paper estimates trade efficiency and potential of China’s agricultural products exported to the countries along the silk road economic zone and analyses the determinants of export trade flows using Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model.Results show that trade efficiency appears on an decreasing trend and the trade potential is big.The total size of economy and common boundary play a promoting role on the export of China’s agricultural products,while the total population size,geographic distance and landlocked or developed countries have blocking effects on the export of China’s agricultural products.Thirdly,this paper uses the existing agricultural products export efficiency value to analyse the factors that effect China’s agricultural products export efficiency by building trade efficiency gravity model.Results show that the importer’s economic openness is negatively related to China’s agricultural products export efficiency. While the proportion of the added value of agriculture is positively related to China’s agricultural products export efficiency.The influence of specific indicators of logistics performance is different and the influence of OECD is not significant,we cannot decide whether it improves China’s agricultural products export efficiency or not.Finally,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions based on the research results: strengthen the coordination of policies and quality standards and bilateral agricultural cooperation and communication, promote the building of silk road economic zone logistics system, take advantage of strategic opportunities such as "silk road core area construction" and "international infrastructure investment".