Study On The Influence Of "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" On Chinese-ASEAN Trade Potential

The construction of "21st Century Marine Silk Road" is an important strategic decision of Chinese opening-up and has great historical and practical significance. The core and essence of "21st Century Marine Silk Road" are the regional cooperation strategy of the new era, providing new ways to expand economic and trade cooperation space between China and ASEAN, and it will further deepen maritime cooperation and exchanges with ASEAN and open a new historical era between Chinese and ASEAN.In this paper, the object is the trade between China and ASEAN, and using method of theoretical and empirical analysis, researching the influence of "21st Century Marine Silk Road" on trade potential between China and ASEAN. Firstly, it is defined the concept of "21st Century Marine Silk Road" and the trade potential, then discussing mechanism of the effect of "21st Century Marine Silk Road" on Chinese-ASEAN trade potential:FTA upgrading and new routes will promote trade Agglomeration and diffusion according to FTA theory and channel economic theory; infrastructure construction will improve trade efficiency according to the SPE model; the Silk Road Fund will expand trade cooperation according to the investment trade creation effect. On this basis, this paper reaches current status, potential and main factor of China-ASEAN trade. China and ASEAN have great trade potential:the volume of trade maintained rapid growth; economic and trade cooperation is complementary to each other; and there is a huge potential in trade and investment. Measuring from the quantity, it uses stochastic frontier gravity model to quantize the influence factors and get the trade potential at present, and proposing a new route and calculating expanding trade potential. Finally, it proposes suggestions on exploring China-ASEAN trade potential based on the theoretical and empirical analysis.