Research On The Impacts Of China’s Population And Land Urbanization On Real Estate Stock

Urbanization refers to the rural population, capital and other kinds of economic factors flow to urban fields so that promoting urban construction and economic developments as long as a series of social changes in the process. It also contains the traditional way of life and work change to the modern style. The process of urbanization is bound to bring the population to urban areas, urban and rural population structure’s change and the growth of urban population income, increasing the mobility and rigidity of real estate and improving investment and speculative demand. In addition, land supply amount, investment scale, construction time, the completion rate and other factors affect the supply and demand in the real estate market, and then affect the trend and real estate structure. Real estate is a special industry linked to land so the scarcity of land resources, limited and monopoly of the supply of land, which makes the price of land and housing prices higher than the general price of goods.Real estate industry still has some problems such as the real estate prices rising too fast, the real estate structure is irrational, housing vacancy rate is too high, the expansion of the real estate industry has brought the waste of resources and other issues. Especially with the growth of economy, the current real estate industry is already from the overheated period into the cool period, and the real estate industry’s contradiction is from the supply and demand change to digesting the inventory. How to digest the large stock of the housing and solve the problem of the real estate enterprise funds chain flow is the focus of current real estate research. Some effective methods are the government unified purchase into the protection of housing, improve the management level of real estate enterprises to the apartment style and increase the housing infrastructure and environmental construction to improve the utilization rate of housing, etc. But from a long-term perspective, a good method is to improve the quality of housing supply, developing long-term real estate demand and reducing the speculative demand. As a natural phenomenon of the population flow to the town, the urban development is a big opportunity to digest to real estate inventory.This paper explains the relationship between urbanization and real estate, the two aspects of urbanization have the different effects on real estate inventory, combined with the key variables to make VAR model analysis. Variables selected from 1997 to 2013 includes the national development of land area, the national commercial housing sales prices, the proportion of the total population of urban population and real estate inventory ratio. Use the country to develop land area as a land urbanization indicators, the national commercial housing sales prices as the index of real estate stocks, the national commercial housing sales price is a key variable. Through ADF analysis, the four indexes are stable in the first order difference. Through the Granger causality analysis, there is a causal relationship between the four variables, which provides theoretical support for the construction of the model. By LR (likelihood ratio) test method and information criterion, AIC criterion and SC criterion, and Harman-Quinn (HQ) criterion and final prediction error FPE, the lag period is 2,and the final data processing is the first order difference, and the lag phase four is 2. Through the VAR model, the relationship between the whole population urbanization, land urbanization, housing prices and real estate inventory is obtained.Through the impulse response and variance decomposition, the conclusion are: 1, the impact of population urbanization on real estate stocks in the short term and long term have a significant role.2,land urbanization on the real estate stocks also have an impact, but the impact is less than the population urbanization, further indicating the real estate inventory policy should focus on the development of the need.3,the role of real estate on the real estate inventory is small, there is no room for the increase in real estate prices will increase the inevitable relationship between the two, but in the long term, the real estate prices in the real estate stock changes have a greater impact. The corresponding policy recommendations are:1,change the path of urbanization, and accelerate the coordinated development of small and medium cities to release of long-term housing needs.2,control the speed of land urbanization, improve the land system, and optimize land management.3,real estate enterprises have to change the extensive development to achieve diversification strategy and industrial restructuring.4,government should make regulation to increase the two or three line of urban industry import, improve infrastructure and reduce housing vacancy rate.5,actively expand other ways to digest the real estate inventory.