Research On The Price Gap Between Domestic And Imported Rapeseed And Factors Influencing Its Fluctuation

Rapeseed is an important oil crop in China, it not only the main raw material for production of rapeseed oil, but also the on second only to soybean meal bulk feed protein source, so rapeseed industry healthy development on the stability of China’s edible oil self-sufficiency rate and security of forage protein supply is of great significance. The price gap between domestic rapeseed and imported rapeseed from222 yuan/ton increase to1006 yuan/tons during 2004 to 2013,which is an increase of353.1%.So between domestic rapeseed and imported rapeseed "price inversion" problem increasingly prominent. Therefore, the study on the spread of domestic rapeseed and imported rapeseed is very realistic significance.This study firstly analyzes the price gap between domestic rapeseed and imported rapeseed fluctuation situation from 2008 to 2014.Secondly, using X-12 seasonal adjustment method and H- P filtering method to research the price gap between domestic rapeseed and imported rapeseed fluctuation characteristics. Descriptive analysis of the main influence factors of the price gap between domestic rapeseed and imported rapeseed,and using VAR model to measure the main influencing factors of contribution to the price gap domestic rapeseed and imported rapeseed price fluctuations.Finally, By combing the developed countries for its agricultural products of inside and outside price gap problem,and rapeseed industry support policy on the implementation of our country in recent years.Combing with the research conclusion,put forward policy suggestions about deal with the price gap between domestic rapeseed and imported rapeseed problem.The results show that:(1) In August 2008 to June 2013, the price gap between domestic rapeseed and imported rapeseed volatility fluctuation is severe, but it was stable below 1000 yuan / ton in most of the months. In July 2013 to December 2014,the price gap between domestic rapeseed and imported rapeseed is ceaseless go up Raise,and it was not only more than 1000 yuan / ton,but aslo has been at a high level.The price gap between domestic rapeseed and imported rapeseed fluctuations has obvious seasonality, tendency and periodicity, but irregular factor has no obvious regularity.(3)Long-term equilibrium relationship existed among the four factors that production cost of domestic rapeseed, the exchange rate of RMB Yuan to US Dollar,petroleum price in international market and the supply and demand of Canada’s rapeseed market.(4)Exchange rate appreciation of RMB Yuan to US Dollar and the rise of production cost of rapeseed in China made the price gap between domesticand imported rapeseed widen rapidly. This two factors had strong effects on the price gap fluctuations with the contribution degree are 27% and 11% respectively.But the supply and demand of Canada’s rapeseed market and the fluctuation of petroleum price in international market had weak effects on the price gap fluctuation between domestic and imported rapeseed with the contribution rate are 2% and 1%respectively.(5)Japan, South Korea and the European Union in order to improve their border protection,making full use of tariff and price tax measures deal with their agricultural products spreads. However our country border protection is weaker for imported rapeseed,and lack enough of policy support for the rape industry.So that lead to the competitiveness of domestic rapeseed is weak.In view of the above conclusions, this study puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations:(1)Multi channels to reduce production costs of rapeseed in China, down from the root of the price gap between domestic rapeseed and imported rapeseed.(2)Improving border protection, especially the role of the "threshold" of tariff protection.(3)Optimization of the rapeseed policy support, improving the support policy to efficiency, and enhance the domestic rapeseed international competitiveness.(4) Strengthen the judgments of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations,and the establishment of early warning mechanisms to deal with the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, weaken its impact on China’s imports of rapeseed.