Research On Key Issues Of Regional Manufacturing PMI Compilation

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is widely used in the world’s major countries and regions as its accuracy and timeliness of economic forecast. Currently in China, there are three kinds of PMI:the national manufacturing PMI released by Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, CAIXIN manufacturing PMI released by CAIXIN media and Guangdong manufacturing PMI released by Guangdong Provincial Economic and Information Technology Commission. Compared to the national PMI, regional manufacturing PMI can better reflect the characteristics of regional economic development so as to better serve the regional economic forecasting and management. However, the development of regional manufacturing PMI in China is still in the exploratory stage. During the compilation of the regional PMI there are still many key scientific problems requiring being explored and researched with a combination of characteristics of regional economic, including index system construction, questionnaire designing, sampling method designing, index calculation and data quality supervision model designing. In this paper, the present situation of the development of the manufacturing PMI is analyzed, and the relationship between the manufacturing PMI and CPI and other macro-economic indicators are discussed. Then the principles and methods of regional manufacturing PMI index system construction and questionnaire designing are studied. After that, the sample selection model called probability proportional to size sampling (PPS) is choosed after analyzing the characteristics of different sampling methods. Then, PMI data processing methods and seasonal adjustment algorithms are discussed combined with PMI practical experience and the general principles. And PMI data quality monitoring mechanisms is built through the analysis of the correlation among PMI indexs within historical data. Finally, the methods and theories of regional manufacturing PMI compilation is taken into practice with the instance of Anhui Manufacturing PMI compilation.In this paper, the key issues on the process of the regional PMI compilation are expanded to be studied and explored so as to enrich the theory of regional PMI compilation, which offers guidence for regional PMI compilation practice, and assists the government decision-making and investment analysis.