| As one of the new service sector, the logistics industry develops rapidly worldwide. The logistics, as a connection point of production and consumption, involves a wide range of fields and had a large employment figure. It has significant effect on production promotion and consumption increasing. It had been recognized as an artery and fundamental industry for regional economic development internationally. Its development level was an important weigh symbol of national modernization degree and comprehensive national strength status. The development of logistics industry lags behind relatively in China. Most studies on logistics to regional economic development promotion in China focused on the overall level and the Eastern China, and related studies on Chongqing were insufficient.Firstly, this paper used input-output method to analyze the physical input-output sheet of Chongqing City in 2007 and 2010. The results showed that logistics industry of Chongqing has the highest direct and complete consumption coefficients to secondary industry. It meant that the logistics industry had the strongest stimulation power to secondary industry. Compared with 2007, correlation level of Chongqing logistics industry to primary industry in 2010 was lower than to secondary industry and tertiary industry, wherein it had significant stimulation power to tertiary and correlation structure and overall industrial structure of Chongqing were mutually consistent. In 2010, dependence of logistics industry of Chongqing to other thrice industries was improved to some extent. On growth aspect, the secondary industry was the highest. The reason was that initial input of secondary industry was more than other industries during the development process of logistics. From the logistics driving force coefficient analysis among 42 sectors of Chongqing in 2010, logistics industry had weaker stimulation power to regional economic development than the rest industrial sectors. Though the study showed that regional economic development had higher dependency on logistics industry, it would restrict the development of other industries of regional economic development under certain conditions since the logistics industry had the properties of fundamental industry and bottleneck industry. Therefore, Chongqing Government shall investigate the influences of logistics industry to overall economy of Chongqing and the links with other sectors when formulating economic planning, so as to increase input on logistic industry scientifically and reasonably.Where after, this paper applied time series method to take empirical analysis on Chongqing logistics industry to regional economic development from 1985 to 2013. It constructed three major variables which represented the development level of logistics industry, i.e. market scale, logistics supply and logistics demand. Since there were plenty of factors affecting the regional economic development and considering high correlation between financial sector and logistics industry, which is obtained by input-output method, and the factor that financial development affected regional economic development for a long period, a financial development(fir) index was introduced as a control variable in the equation. According to the logics of time series, the unit root test is taken firstly to verify the stability between variables. It discovered that the five variables are all same order integration, and the variables of gross urban product of Chongqing, value added of logistics industry, total mileage of transportation lines, freight turnover and financial development were correlated. Coefficient of cointegration equation indicated that logistics industry of Chongqing has promotion effect to regional economic growth. Viewing from a long term, the length of transport routes(ltr) suppressed the economic growth of Chongqing and the reason might be the input cost of transportation lines in Chongqing was higher than output gains. The value added of logistics industry(lpv), freight Ton-kilometers(ftk) and financial development(fir) promoted the regional economic growth, wherein the correlation coefficient of the value added of logistics industry(lpv) was the largest and had the strongest promotion effect, followed by freight Ton-kilometers(ftk), which had long term positive promotion effect, and financial interrelations ratio(fir), which was weaker for economic development promotion. The reason was that logistics industry of Chongqing did not have scale driving effect to whole economy of Chongqing. The results also reflected that the demand of freight turnover was low for a long term in Chongqing area.This paper construed an error correction model further. Viewing from a short term relation, short-term fluctuation of length of transport routes(ltr) had positive promotion effect to GDP growth. The reason was that the fixed assets investment is effective to promote regional economic development in a short term, while the construction input aspect in total mileage of transportation lines was realized through the influences of conduction effect mechanism of social fixed assets input. Comparatively, the value added of logistics industry(lpv), freight Ton-kilometers(ftk) and financial interrelations ratio(fir) did not have significant promotion effect on regional economic development. The reason was that both had time lag, and could only have promotion effect on regional economic development in a long period.Comprehensively, logistics industry has significant promotion effect on Chongqing economic. The secondary industry and tertiary industry of Chongqing have a higher development level and the logistics industry demand would be improved further in the future, wherein the industry, construction industry and financial industry have higher correlation with the logistics industry. The development of logistics industry of Chongqing shall focus on infrastructure construction of transportation lines and efficiency improvement of freight turnover. Chongqing, as one of the dual-core of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone, has significant effect to drive the surrounding cities. The logistics industry has an irreplaceable role in economic elements circulation of Chongqing and the surrounding area. |
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