The Research On Impacts Of The Industrial Structure Upgrading On Potential Economic Growth Rate In Jiangsu

Along with the gradual development of society and economy in our country,the characteristics of economic development under the "new normal" in Jiangsu is more and more manifest. In the "Twelfth five-year" period,the average annual growth rate of jiangsu’s economy fell to 9.8% with the downward pressure on the economy,other problems such as resource constraints and the environmental problems etc are also growing. Therefore,at the moment of entering "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in " period,how to dig the new economic growth point of Jiangsu and how to transform the economic structure have become the hot shot of the masses.Under the macro context of the current,this paper tries to analyze the problem above.The results of this study hope to help the policymakers to formulate policies on economic development correctly and have realistic significance on economic growth in Jiangsu in the new period.Based on literature study about the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth and the theories of the potential economic growth at home and abroad,this paper finds a way to analyze the problem above.The core of transforming economic structure lies in the transformation of industrial structure, and stimulating the potential output of the economy is the key to economic growth.Therefore,The research on impacts of the industrial structure upgrading upon potential economic growth rate in Jiangsu has become an effective way to solve this problem.The theoretical analysis section of this paper firstly describes the connotation and characteristics of industrial structure upgrading,builds the standard of evaluating industrial structure upgrading,which includes "high gradation", "rationalization", "softening", "low carbonization",then analyzes their connections;secondly,it determines the connotation of potential economic growth rate and analyzes the the relationship between the potential growth rate and actual growth rate;finally,it analyzes the interaction mechanism between the industrial structure upgrading and the potential economic growth rate and finds the path of how the industrial structureupgrading promotes potential economic growth.The empirical analysis section selects specific indicators to measure the upgrading of the industrial structure in Jiangsu depended on the evaluation criterion of the theoretical section at first;at second,this section chooses HP filter to measure potential economic growth rate of Jiangsu in1990-2014,then compares it with the actual economic growth rate in order to identify the reasons for the economic downturn;at last,it tests the interactional relationship between the industrial structure upgrading and the potential economic growth rate in Jiangsu through the "Granger Causality".By the end of this paper,based on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis,it proposes policies of how to promote the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure and how to promote the steady growth of the economy in Jiangsu.This study finds that the support of economic development in Jiangsu has changed deeply in the new period. In the "12th Five-Year" period,the root reason for the slowdown of economic growth rate in Jiangsu is the slowdown of potential economic growth rate. Although,for many years,the industrial structure becomes optimized and upgraded.Under the new situation,the traditional comparative advantage has been weakened.Getting faster revolution is the key to find new momentum of economic development in Jiangsu.When upgrading its industrial structure,Jiangsu should not only pay attention to the development of high gradation and rationalization,but also need to pay more attention to auxiliary effect of softening and low carbonization. At the beginning of "13th Five-Year",Jiangsu should follow the correct guidance of the CPC Central Committee to promote the structural reforms on supply side and conduct a innovation of industry;it should focus on the development of low carbon economy,especially on the research and development of low carbon technology in industrial development;it is more necessary to recognize the distinctive characteristics of the development of the times to enhance the strength of soft industries by fully exploring new production factors.