Study On The Evolution Of The Supply Chain State Under Disruptions

In recent years, with the rapid development of economic globalization and international competition, the supply chain environment is more and more complex and full of uncertainties. Therefore, the supply chain becomes fragile in face of unexpected events. The internal and external environment of the supply chain is full of uncertainties, and it is possible to lead to supply chain disruptions when the uncertainties accumulate to a certain degree. It will also disturb the coordination of the supply chain. What’s more, it will do harm to the social production and stabilization. So it is necessary to study the evolution of supply chain under disruptions theoretically.In this paper, system engineering theory and methodology is taken as a guide to study the state evolution of supply chain system under disruptions. First of all, based on a large number of disruption cases, principal component analysis(PCA) and system cluster analysis(SCA) are used to analyze the cause elements and extract cause elements of all kinds of disruptions according to different industries, divide eight major industries into four categories: automobile, food, logistics and other selected industries, and then the elements system of supply chain disruption cause is established. Based on this, the system dynamics structural models of internal and external factors of supply chain are built. Secondly, based on nonlinear system theory and Cobb-Douglas production function, the dynamic nonlinear model of supply chain that take manufacturing enterprises as the core is built and Lyapunov exponent is used to analyze the stability of supply chain to find out how the relevant indicators affect the stability of the supply chain. The conclusion is that reinvest rate should be within a certain threshold range. Once it is beyond the threshold range, the supply chain will lose stability, which will also provide an early warning of supply chain disruption. Finally, Anylogic simulation software is used to simulate the manufacturing supply chain that attacked by the disruption of sudden change in market demand. By means of the comparative analysis of each supply chain node’s inventory, costs and profits of subsystem before and after disruptions, the evolution characteristics of the supply chain under disruptions are summed up, which provides the decision-making basis for the enterprises to respond to such supply chain disruptions. The study has found that the cause factors of supply chain disruptions are complex and diverse, which affect supply chain members on different degree and time, only to maintain the information open, can the supply chain response to disruptions effectively, and reduce the loss.The study of evolution of the supply chain state under disruptions reveals the inner evolution mechanism under supply chain disruptions, which provides theoretical basis for the action and emergency management, not only to help supply chain companies enhance the ability to identify danger accurately, but also to improve the defense capability. The research will help supply chain members to be aware of the occurrence of unexpected events timely and accurately, which can effectively reduce the negative influence of disruptions to supply chain.