Research On Nonlinear Relationship Between Economic Growth And CO₂ Emission In China

As the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world,China faces not only the pressure from international emissions reduction due to the increase of carbon dioxide emissions,but also the environmental factors which has gradually restricted its development during the process of economic growth.In this context,the study of the inherent relationship between economic growth and the amount of CO₂ emissions is particularly important.This paper focuses on the analysis of the nonlinear relationship between the relevant factors and China's CO₂ emissions amount during its economic growth,then through the establishment of panel smooth transition regression to solve the threshold.Furthermore,it describes the nonlinear smooth transition process of CO₂ emission per capita amount with the change of relevant influencing factors.The main contents,methods and conclusions of this paper include the following aspects:First,in order to solve the problem of carbon dioxide emissions,this paper firstly defines the definition of "carbon source" and provides accurate conceptual support for CO₂ emissions in China.At the same time,it summarizes the research status of CO₂ emission since the middle of 20 th century in order to provide an useful reference for the calculation of carbon dioxide emissions,the measurement of influencing factors and the nonlinear relationship with economic growth.Second,the influencing factors of CO₂ emission in China are analyzed by employing panel gray correlation method.Through the weighted relative development speed and the relative development level,the panel gray correlation degree between the influence factors and CO₂ emission per capita is obtained: the level of urbanization and GDP per capita are the two most important factors of CO₂ emissions.Third,China's GDP per capita and CO₂ emissions amount per capita appear inverted "U" type.China has crossed the GDP per capita of 1500.87 yuan of the first inflection point,and when the GDP per capita reached 73,203.61 yuan,the CO₂ per capita emissions will gradually decline accordingly.Fourth,study on nonlinear smooth transition mechanism between economic growth and CO₂ emission in China.The impact of GDP per capita and urbanization level on CO₂ emission per capita has a double threshold.When the GDP per capita equals to 9.7037 yuan,the model is at a low level;when the GDP per capita decreases or increases,the model tends to be high level.The conversion rate of affecting per capita carbon dioxide emissions caused by urbanization level is significantly higher than that by different GDP per capita and energy structures.Fifth,through combining real examples to analyze the conclusion,this paper puts forward corresponding policies and advices from the aspects of optimizing the energy structure,rationally planning the layout of the industrial space and restructuring the export trade structure.