Study On The Correlation Of Carbon Dioxide Emission And Its Influence Factors In China Based On Kaya Model

Recent years have seen the rapid development speed of the construction industry,which has become the pillar industry in our national economy,leading to the sustained and rapid economic development of our country.Meanwhile,as a cornerstone of the development of various industries in China,the construction industry interacts with many industries.But the construction industry has the characteristics of high energy consumption and high pollution.It emits a lot of carbon dioxide gas while consuming energy resources.Comprehensive Work Plan for Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction in the 13^th Five-year Plan issued by the State Council in 2016 asked to share the responsibility and the target of energy construction to the all provinces,autonomous regions and cities.Each province?autonomous region and city?puts the target into all walks of life according to the reality.As an important source of emissions of carbon dioxide,the construction industry is a key area to reduce emissions,thus implementing emission reduction work through the construction industry can effectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions in China,which is of great significance to realize the goal of low-carbon development.In view of this,this paper,taking Anhui Province as an example,studies the correlation between influence factors in the construction industry and carbon dioxide emissions and put forward some suggestions and measures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in Anhui Province aimed at these factors.Two models are constructed in the paper,the carbon dioxide emission measurement model and the grey relational analysis model respectively.The paper is divided into two parts:one is to calculate the amount of carbon dioxide emissions in Anhui construction industry according to the carbon dioxide emission measurement model;Another part is to use the expanded Kaya identity to select four factors influencing carbon dioxide emissions in the construction industry,and to figure out the correlation degree between the four factors and carbon dioxide emissions by means of the grey relational analysis model and to sort them.Finally the paper gets following conclusions:?The carbon dioxide emission measurement model in the paper,based on the carbon emission measurement model in 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories,figures out the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions in Anhui construction industry between 2010 and 2015 from two aspects of direct carbon dioxide emissions and indirect carbon dioxide emissions.The paper finds that indirect carbon dioxide emissions takes a 98.4%percent in total carbon dioxide emissions in Anhui construction industry while direct carbon emissions is almost negligible,and that building material cement accounts for 94.4%in the indirect carbon dioxide emissions.The calculation results show that the carbon dioxide emissions in Anhui construction industry have been rising from2010 to 2014,with a sudden drop of 16.9%in 2015.The main reason for this phenomenon is that the amount of cement used in construction materials has decreased by 16.7%in2015 compared with 2014.?The paper uses Kaya identity model to select four indicators:energy structure effect,energy intensity effect,construction scale effect,indirect carbon dioxide emissions intensity effect,as the factors influencing carbon dioxide emissions in Anhui construction industry,and digitizes them.A grey relational analysis model is constructed in the paper to figure out the correlation degree between the four influencing factors and carbon dioxide emissions in Anhui construction industry,and to sort them.The result shows that the energy structure effect is the most related,and the correlation degree of energy intensity effect is secondary,followed by construction area and indirect carbon dioxide intensity effect.