Research On The Prediction Model And Of Residential Cost Index

In recent years,with the domestic construction project cost industry becoming increasingly standardized,the compilation,prediction and release of the project cost index has been gradually put on the agenda by the construction related departments in many provinces and cities.Enterprises in the society are also increasingly concerned about the application of project cost index in the dynamic management of engineering cost.However,due to the imperfection of domestic project cost index standard,the uneven level in the compilation of project cost index in different regions and the fairly low utilization of engineering historical data,the accuracy of the prediction results of the compilation of project cost index is reduced to a certain extent,which is not conducive to the application and popularization of the project cost index.Under the guidance of project cost management related policies enacted by the Ministry of Housing to promote the reform of the project cost management and carry out the residential construction cost information measurement work,it seems necessary to study the compilation,prediction and application of residential construction project cost index.It is conducive to China's comprehensive implementation of engineering quantity list valuation and helpful for the tender,the conduit company commissioned by the tender and the bidder to predict the cost of an engineering project quickly and accurately.The research focus of this paper is mainly related to the residential construction which has the largest number of projects and whose data standard is easy to set among China's urban construction projects.The compilation,prediction and application of project cost index are studied.The main contents are:(1)The paper expounds the basic theory of index and discusses several commonly used index models.(2)It explores the theory of project cost index and the compilation model,lists out the calculation formula of single index and composite index,and provides case analysis of the compilation of residential construction project cost index.In addition,it analyses the collection and processing of the residential construction project cost information in Chongqing based on the data standards of city's residential construction cost information set by the Ministry of Housing.(3)It compares and analyses several commonly used prediction models such as Time Series Model,Grey Prediction Model,Markov Prediction Model,Trend Extrapolation Model,Fuzzy Mathematical Model and Artificial Neural Network Prediction Model.Among them,the Grey Prediction Model is chosen as the researchmodel for the present paper.(4)It constructs the project cost index prediction model based on grey system theory and improves the traditional grey prediction GM(1,1)model,thus obtaining the approximate center type GM(1,1)model.The Grey Prediction Model of residential construction project cost index is tested.(5)It also analyses the application of project cost index in the dynamic management of residential construction project cost.The present paper studies the compilation,prediction and application of project cost index and the research results are significant to promote the application of the project cost index.Though it is important to choose the appropriate compilation model prior to the compilation of project cost index,attention should be paid to the data collection,classification and analysis processing at ordinary times and great importance should be attached to database accumulation of representative projects.It is of practical value to the application of project cost index in cost dynamic management.The constructed prediction model can be used in the actual residential construction projects or extended to other professional projects.It should be noted that the Grey Prediction Model is eligible for short-term prediction while in the prediction of long-term data series,the Time Series Model discussed in the paper should be employed to conduct prediction research.