Study On The Forecast Of Working Procedure Duration Based On The Comprehensive Risk Analysis

Construction project as a complex system engineering,its engineering quantity,long construction period,construction technology is complex,many of the participating parties and so on,leading to the project in the process of implementing the risk of more;These risks will affect the realization of the three objectives of the project,as one of the three major goals of the project is no exception.Research shows that 90% of the project has more or less time delay of the project,the construction of the project is one of the important conditions for the realization of the overall objectives of the project;And fine control of the time limit for a project is the premise of the project to make accurate forecasts to a reasonable allocation of resources.Aiming at the defect that the correlation between risk factors and risk factors is considered in the traditional time limit prediction method,this paper considers the comprehensive consideration of the risk uncertainty and the risk correlation,and calculates the comprehensive influence of the duration risk;Based on this,a new model of working procedure duration prediction is proposed,which is of great significance to the realization of the time limit for the project.In this paper,based on the analysis of the risk comprehensive impact rate,the main research work is as follows:(1)This paper expounds the concept,characteristics and sources of the risk of the construction period;Explain the concept,significance,and traditional methods of time limit for a project;This paper introduces the concept of BIM technology,the application of 4DBIM technology in the progress control,and builds the 4DBIM technology progress control flow chart.(2)Explain the process of the project risk identification and common methods;By using the case study method of risk identification,the risk caused by the time delay case summary.Analysis of the specific reasons for the occurrence of the conditions and the possibility of;construction period risk factors affect the overall structure of the system,provide a theoretical basis for the research of project risk.(3)Describes the traditional OWA operator and CUOWGA operator,and proposes an improved CUOWGA operator.This operator has the advantage of the traditional operator.This operator through the interval number of the form to solve the problem of fuzzy uncertainty.The quantification of fuzzy semantics of operators and formulas for normalizing the decision matrix with the application to the operator,is conducive to the elimination of traditional decision-making process operator experience assumptions improves the calculation accuracy,simplifies the operation process.(4)For the duration of risk factors with uncertainty and correlation characteristics;using the random number simulation risk uncertainty,Shapley value function will consider the risk correlation;As well as the simulation of the risk probability of the differences in comparison,the above three for a comprehensive study,the paper puts forward the comprehensive risk factor calculation formula,and its superiority analysis.On the basis of this,the paper puts forward the model of the working procedure of the project.Finally,through the example analysis,and combined with 4DBIM technology to do three-dimensional visualization model contrast,the paper proves that the method is effective.