The Research On The Improved F-AHP In The Risk Assessment Of Hydiaulic Duration

Hydropower project is a large amount of investment, long construction period, large scale and many affect factors. These make the project must suffer many risks when it begin to construct. With the continuous development of the national economy,as well as the funding for construction of water conservancy continues to increase, water conservancy construction has also been rapid development, more and more new technologies, new methods are introduced to the construction of water projects. This makes the need for water conservancy construction facing more and more unpredictable risk. So it is necessary to build water conservancy construction system of risk evaluation system, through the risk factors analysis, get the risk assessment model and make the risk assessment.In this thesis, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process has been proved, the relationship between the various indicators will affect the result of the weight. So I establish the relations hip matrix, and use it corrected the weigh of each indicator. get the weights consider both the relative importance of upper and lower layers and the interaction in one layer. At the same time, define the evaluation of the impact matrix, and verify the reasonableness of it.Use the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process make the duration assessment of the hydropower projects. First, establish the risk assessment model, According to the fuzzy analytic hierarchy principle to establish the fuzzy priority matrix and get the weights. Then establish the effect relationship matrix, use it corrected the weights get from the fuzzy priority matrix. According to the specific circumstances of the project, determine the membership function of each evaluation, calculate the membership degree. At last, use the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to make the duration assessment.According to the weight calculation of the hydropower projects, comparing the result of the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the previous one, we found the weights has been changed. Finally, use the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the risk assessment. compared the results, we could say that the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is reasonable and feasible.