Research On Navigational Safety Evaluation In Sea Area Based On Data Observed On Real Time Circumstance Of Vessel Traffic

The shipping industry has developed recent years and ship quantity grow to a certain size.However,with the diversification of types,large-scale,and increasingly complex environment,it makes frequent maritime accidents,becoming one of the main factors which restrict the development of shipping industry.In order to ensure security of navigation,reduce unnecessary accidents and promote sustainable development,it is necessary to research on the navigation safety,establish scientific navigation safety evaluation standard,so as to provide a certain basis for maritime safety management.The open coastal waters is a complicated system affected by lots of factors,and it's hard to collect message based on traditional traffic real state observation data,so AIS information through data mining is used to evaluate sea navigation safety,making up the inadequacy of traditional traffic situation observation data.First of all,according to characteristics of sea navigation environment,analyze the relevant factors affecting the safety in open seas on the basis of a lot reading literature,establish sea area navigation evaluation index system based on AIS data.One is relative evaluation,that is to determine the safety degree of several different sea relatively,through multi-level fuzzy optimization model,from the bottom of hierarchy and to the top,finally choose the high and low risk area.Secondly,absolute evaluation,absolute quantitative judgment of a certain sea area navigation safety status,the widely used fuzzy synthetical evaluation method is choosed to evaluate it.In the process of evaluation index weight,with the improved analytic hierarchy process—fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(Ahp)to determine index weight,overcome the complicated and subjective factors affect too much problem in traditional hierarchical analysis method.Finally,choose Chengshantou sea as example,use the established navigation safety assessment model,and the relative and absolute evaluation is conducted on this water.By the analysis of the evaluation results,the feasibility of the application of sea navigation safety evaluation is verified by using this two kinds of evaluation model.