Study On Forecasting And Maintenance Decision Of Small Asphalt Pavement Construction In Guangdong Province

With the expansion of the scale of the road network in Guangdong Province,the highway grade is increasing,the traffic task of the highway is becoming more and more serious,and the road pavement has different damage and the demand for conservation is increasing day by day.Under the great conservation pressure,whether it is the forecast of conservation engineering quantity,the allocation of conservation funds,or the choice of conservation measures have become a difficult problem to be solved urgently in highway maintenance department.This paper relies on the project "Guangdong Province,the provincial general maintenance and maintenance of small maintenance costs and quota research" to carry out the general province of Guangdong Province asphalt pavement construction project forecast and preventive maintenance decision-making research.Based on the decay characteristics of the asphalt pavement performance index in Guangdong Province,based on the cosine function model,the standard decay model,the linear model and the exponential model,this paper analyzes the characteristics of the asphalt pavement in Guangdong Province,The model is used to optimize the model of asphalt pavement performance in Guangdong Province.Based on the analysis of the factors influencing the influencing factors of the asphalt pavement,the paper puts forward seven calculation variables,and constructs the multi-factor forecasting model of the minor engineering quantity by BP neural network method,multiple linear regression method and multiple nonlinear regression method.The forecasting model and the applicability of the four predictive models show that the BP neural network prediction model has the best prediction effect,and the estimation model can also provide a large reference function.,To facilitate the conservation management department according to their own needs and the actual situation to be selected.This paper discusses the establishment process of the preventive maintenance decision system of the asphalt pavement in the national province from three aspects: road segmentation,conservation decision making and decision making.In this paper,the decision-making method of conservation measures based on TOPSISI level analysis is put forward by establishing the evaluation index of conservation measures.Based on the pavement performance decay model and the small scale prediction model,The effect and cost of preventive maintenance measures were analyzed,and the optimal timing plan for preventive maintenance was determined from the perspective of maximum effect cost.Finally,an example is given to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the preventive maintenance decision-making system established in this paper.It provides decision-making reference for road maintenance and management departments,guides the allocation of maintenance costs and the preparation of conservation plan,with a view to maximizing the use of conservation funds Efficiency,to create a comfortable and safe driving environment,to extend road life,promote road maintenance sustained and healthy development.