Evaluation Of Schedule Risk Based On Multi-level Gray Evaluation Method

Water conservancy projects play an important role in power generation,flood control,irrigation and ecological construction.Water conservancy construction is the basic condition for the development of national economy.As the construction of water conservancy projects with large-scale,multi-investment characteristics.in the construction process,there will inevitably encounter a lot of risk,duration risk is the most likely to happen.Therefore,it is of great significance to carry out risk identification and risk evaluation of engineering duration.In this paper,after comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the commonly used comprehensive evaluation method and the application scope,the gray system theory is selected to evaluate the complexity and uncertainty of the risk system of water conservancy project.According to the multi-factor,multi-level and interrelated features of the risk system,the weight of the index is determined by the analytic hierarchy process.The comprehensive evaluation value is determined by the gray evaluation method which can make full use of the known data for the incompleteness of the collected index data.This paper establishes a multi-level gray evaluation model for construction period risk.First of all,according to the risk source analysis of water conservancy project risk factors,including the establishment of 4 subprojects,16 sub-projects of the risk assessment index system.Secondly,a multi-level gray evaluation model of water project construction risk is established,and the collected evaluation information is processed into a weight vector representing the degree of gray.Finally,the risk evaluation model is applied to the engineering example for calculation and analysis,and the applicability and validity of the model are verified.