Evaluation Of Navigation Safety In Port Water Area Based On Fuzzy AHP-DEMATEL Method

In the past few years,China's international commercial intercourse has become gradually frequent due to the high-speed economic development and the "going out"policy of Chinese government.Ports,acting as an important transportation hub at sea,are the junction in sea-land multimodal transportation.Thus the safety in port water areas plays a remarkable role in guaranteeing trade contacts.As the port handling capacity increases,the navigation environment is getting more complicated than before while the accident rate is greatly rising.Therefore,conducting research on the evaluation of navigation safety in port water areas will contribute to improving maritime traffic safety.Navigation safety in port waters is an uncertain issue affected by multiple factors.Many a scholar in China and abroad has proposed a series of evaluation models,among which one of the most crucial research subjects is to minimize the influence of subjectivity.An AHP-DEMATEL model to evaluate navigation safety in port waters is presented in this paper,attempting to reduce subjective influence of analytic hierarchy process(AHP).First,the integrated influence such as human,vessels,environment and management by AHP is considered,and an evaluation index system of navigation safety in port waters is set up after determining related influence factors.Second,in the light of evaluation principles,a pairwise comparison matrix of influence factors is built by expert investigation method,and consequently,the weight of each influence factor can be determined.Furthermore,considering the drawback of AHP,we introduce DEMATEL to integrate experts' opinions so as to overcome subjectivity,and finally propose the AHP-DEMATEL model.Third,a fuzzy AHP-DEMATEL model is built based on the fuzzy synthetic evaluation model.Finally,the fuzzy AHP-DEMATEL method and the fuzzy AHP method are applied in the evaluation of navigation safety in Dongjia Port in Qingdao City.Through the comparison analysis of each factor's weight,important influence factors in navigation safety in port waters are concluded and suggestions for improvement are proposed,which provides a theoretical basis for enhancing navigation safety in port waters.