Reseach Of Grey Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation For Dam Failure

There are more than 3,000 dams that have been collapsed since 1954.Dam failure would cause consequence in life, society and environment. It is of necessity to analyze and evaluate the safe state of dams. For China, dangerous dams account for about 36% of the total number of the dams, it's difficult to reinforce across-the-board. Eliminating danger is only according to the priorities of the severity of the risk of dam. As a result, how to integrate the consequences of loss of life, economic losses, social and environmental impact and determine the sort order is a important task.The study on the risk assessment related to dam failure has been performed all over the world, especially in USA, Canada, Australia, Western Europe and South Africa. The evaluation specifications or codes are proposed in the countries, respectively. But the research of dam failure is still at the imperfect stage, there is no international and unitive models and methods of evaluation that can be widely accepted.The comprehensive evaluation function of the dam failure function was introduced by Wang Renzhong, Wang Zhaosheng and so on. This function is constructed through linear weight sum method.The weights and severity coefficient of the life, the economy and the society and environment were overall considered in this function. It has be applied in practice.For the existing models and methods, there have been some fruits in practice but exist the problem of information's insufficiency. Because of neglecting the interactional relation between the insufficiency and evaluation, it is limitation for the existing models and methods. Grey fuzzy model use grey-fuzzy aggregate as theory basis. In the model, the grey scale and fuzzy relation are used to describe information's insufficiency and the relation between influencing factors and the level of dam failure. Firstly, on the basis of previous studies, the influencing factors are determined. At the same time, the existing models and methods are compared and evaluated, the theory of gray fuzzy synthetic evaluation is expounded. Secondly, on the basis of researching the gray fuzzy synthetic evaluation model, gray fuzzy synthetic evaluation model for dam failure is established and logical grading standards of dam failure is constituted. Finally, use Shaheji Dam in Anhui Province as a example, the dam failure's consequence is synthetically evaluated, and according to the result the dam failure's consequence is appraised.