Impacts Of The Spatial Expansion Of Suitable Areas Of Rubber Plantations On The Habitats Of Wild Asian Elephant(Elephas Maximus) Under Global Warming

The impacts of global climate change on biodiversity are directly or indirectly related to biodiversity conversation in the future.The consequences and results of global climate change not only lead to species extinction,but cause the ecological effects on different levels.One of the most prominent features in the climate change is global warming,which can enlarge the planting climate suitable areas of certain crops,particularly for the tropical economic crops.Some of the planting climate suitable areas conflict with the suitable wildlife habitats,however,human only considers how much they can make from the nature,ignores the biodiversity and wildlife habitats conservation,further deforests the virgin forests and destroys the wildlife habitats,which accelerates the habitats fragmentation and loss,even causes species extinction.Under the background of the climate change and human social development,if the current habitats can abidingly maintain the ecosystem integrity is the urgent mission for biodiversity protection.Hence,it urgently needs to protect wildlife habitats,maintain biodiversity and ecosystem balance through the scientific approaches under the background of climate change.Ecology as the theoretical guidance in this study,using related mathematical model,statistical software,geographic information system(GIS),previous observed climate data and future climate scene data to respectively compute the current(1981~2010)rubber planting climate suitable areas and the future(2081~2100)rubber planting climate suitable areas.Meanwhile,the impacts of temporal and spatial variation of rubber planting climate suitable areas on the suitable habitats of Asian elephants was studied.The consequences and results of this study can help to reasonably arrange the rubber plantation area and efficiently conserve the habitats of Asian elephants,moreover,it can also provides us with certain scientific evidence to locate ecological shelters,build ecological corridors,redefine the boundaries of the conservation areas and make conservation policy.The results indicated that:(1)The temperature was increasing by years,and the average minimum temperature was the significant one.In the past years(1961~2010),the averageminimum temperature was increasing at a rate of 0.31℃/10 a.In the future(2051~2100),the average minimum temperature was increasing at a rate of0.56℃/10 a,which potentially promoted the tropical economic crops expanding.(2)The current(1981~2010)rubber planting climate suitable areas showed the similar trend as the actual rubber distribution areas,which occupied 12169.14 km2 in total.The high suitable area,the moderate suitable area and the low suitable area respectively occupied 1908.55 km2,1088.27 km2 and 9172.32 km2.The future(2081~2100)rubber planting climate suitable areas occupied 10220.19 km2 in total.The high suitable area,the moderate suitable area and the low suitable area were respectively occupied 1755.04 km2,1081.73 km2 and 7383.42 km2.(3)The current(1981~2010)rubber planting climate suitable areas had been compared with the future(2081~2100)rubber planting climate suitable areas,which indicated that: the future rubber planting climate suitable areas decreased by 1948.95km2,meanwhile,the future rubber planting climate suitable areas had a trend of expansion to high altitude and latitude,from the altitude limit 1809 m to 1911 m,from the latitude limit 23°23′N to 24°26′N.(4)The suitable habitats of Asian elephants was analyzed,and the suitable habitats of Asian elephants occupied 8004.79 km2 in the entire study area.The optimal habitat,suitable habitat and the marginal habitat respectively occupied806.44km2,2070.49 km2 and 5127.86 km2.The current and future rubber planting climate suitable areas were respectively analyzed by adding the suitability habitats range of Asian elephants,which indicated that: the current rubber-elephant conflict areas occupied 770.31km2 in total.The high conflict areas,the moderate conflict areas and the low conflict areas respectively occupied 56.43 km2,40.92 km2 and 672.96km2.In addition,the future rubber-elephant conflict areas occupied 493.01km2 in total.The high conflict areas,the moderate conflict areas and the low conflict areas respectively occupied 60.54 km2,81.15 km2 and 351.32 km2.Although the future rubber-elephant conflict areas decreased a little bit,the high conflict areas and the moderate conflict areas increased in the future.