The Research Of Disaster Recovery Cycle In Qing Dynasty

As the powerful enemy in the process of the development of human civilization,natural disasters with abnormal changes often bring some shocking effects to people's daily life since ancient times.Shanxi province became a hotbed of frequent disasters because of its special geographical position and climate conditions.Statistical data shows that Shanxi is one of the places with many natural disasters in Qing dynasty.And with some kinds of systems consummating,the government relief system have gradually become more stylized and affect its management performance.Disaster recovery cycle refers to a period of time from the occurrence of disaster to the recovery of production capacity in disaster area.This period of time can reflect the problems of the disaster degree and disaster relief performance.So the research of disaster recovery cycle will enable us to investigate that effect from another perspective.Nowadays,the academic research achievements of natural disasters using grain prices are mainly concentrated in the macro level,such as the larger region or the longer period of time,but the microscopic study on a particular disaster is still blank.Firstly,this paper selects two general droughts degreed 2 in Gaoping County of Zezhou,1834 and 1867 as the starting point,calculates the corresponding disaster recovery cycle and expresses by graphics.Secondly,this article will analyze the supply and demand on grain in the affected areas.Due to the changes with the population structure and the level of food consumption,the food demand will transform among these three categories of people,having full exchange rights,having incomplete exchange rights and having no exchange rights.By constructing the corresponding transformation model,we can clarify the effective time of food supply.At last,this paper makes an econometric model based on time series and analyses the function of government relief,trade,food substitutes and consumer preference in the disaster recovery period.Results show that the government affects food supply and reduce disaster recovery cycle through the regulation of prices in the early and middle period of Qing Dynasty.With time going to the late Qing Dynasty,the government's effect is limited but private relief activities gradually emerge.In addition,along with the deepening of the degree of market integration,the southern of Shanxi form a larger range of market trade,reflecting the effect of market to reducing the disaster recovery cycle obviously.