An Empirical Study Of Factors Affecting Land Expropriation Social Stability Risk

Along with our country's urbanization advancement as well as the industrial structure adjustment, there is a more and more demand for land, the behavior of rural land expropriation is also increasing. But the land expropriation conflict in Hangzhou Qiandao Lake in 2013, Henan Xiangcheng in 2012, and Guangxi Cangwu in 2010 and other land expropriation conflict events indicates that: if without attention to farmers' interests in the process of land expropriation, expropriation behavior may have a negative impact on social stability. Although our country has promulgated a series of documents, and put the "land levy social stability risk assessment" into the system of land expropriation, due to the lack of empirical research on the impact factors, the evaluation system put forward by the local government and the academic fields have been unable to get uniform. Therefore, through empirical research, to get a method on how to know the social stability risk factors in local land expropriation and to understand the critical factors affecting social stability risk in land expropriation are helpful to the establishment of social stability risk assessment system in our country and the construction of relevant risk prevention and control.Firstly, through the literature review and policy research, this paper tried to understand the research achievements and the shortcomings of social stability risk of current land expropriation in our country in order to get theoretical basis for the follow-up study. Secondly,According to news reports and self experience put forward the hypothesis about affecting factors on the base of analyzing the common problems that appeared in the process of land expropriation. Thirdly, this paper further defined the land expropriation social stability risk concept, and put forward the assumptions from the four factors of the living conditions of residents, government policy, the implementation process, and the populace psychology that affect the social stability risk on land expropriation. Then this paper designed the questionnaire based on the assumptions of affecting factors, and through the questionnaire and interview, conducted statistic analysis on investigation results from the three aspects of residents living conditions, the problems in the process of land expropriation (including the problems of government policy, implementation process and the populace psychology) and the social instability behavior in the process of land expropriation.This study found out the significant factors affecting social stability risk of land expropriation based on the assumptions of influencing factors that affect social stability risk and field survey statistic analysis and the single factor Logistic regression analysis. Then this paper integrated the significant factors got by the single regression analysis into the logistic model to further screen the affecting factors which get into the model, and construct the social stability risk prediction model of land expropriation,then tested and analyzed the predicted accuracy of the model constructed with reserved data. The key affecting factors finally got from the study can be used as the reference for local land levy social stability risk control, and the whole process to get the key affecting factors in the case study can be used as a method to explore social stability risk affecting factors in their own land expropriation.Finally, according to the results of model analysis, this paper put forward the suggestions on reducing the social stability risk in land expropriation from the three aspects of paying attention to the identification and screening of risk affecting factors, concerning to the key affecting factors, and improving the process of land expropriation.