| After The Second World War,along with the rapid economic and social development.people's fertility willingness gradually decline.While the improvement of living standard and medical and health services greatly extend the average life expectancy,thus countries throughout the world generally face demographic aging trend.As a serious demographic problem,aging has changed the labor supply,but also changed the social preferences of consumption and savings habits.This will undoubtedly change a country's relative endowments of capital and labor,which will affect the-comparative advantage of industries in export.So the impacts of population aging on the comparative advantage of China's manufacturing exports become the focus of this study.China,with the largest population in the world,participated in international division and vigorously developed manufacturing industries as main national industry relyinng on low-cost labor and other resources after the reform and opening up policy.Especially in labor-intensive industries,China is playing an important role in the international market.China has become a "manufacturing country",but not "manufacturing power." In recent years,along with the family planning policy and the extensions of average life expectancy.the population structure began to change.In the background of disappearance of' the demographic dividend,facing pressure from both developed and developing countries.China's competitiveness of labor-intensive manufacturing in the international market continues to weaken,and as a result,demographic structure problems especially aging stand out gradually.According to " China's sixth national census ":People over 65 years old take up 8.87%of the total population and population aged over 60 accounted for 13.26%,significantly more than the United Nations standards.Population aging has changed the quality and quantity of labor force supply as well as people's spending habits and savings preferences,so that capital and labor endowments change relatively,prompting the comparative advantage to make changes accordingly,which will no doubt affect China's manufacturing status in the international market.Forearmed is forearmed,the influence of population aging on manufacturing export' comparative advantage is very meaningful.Given our country stepped into the aging world in 2000,the study of aging is just beginning,which focused on the current situation and the evolution of population aging trends,characteristics,reasons,economic growth,consumer behavior,savings,pension.The developed country was earlier than China and thus the study of aging is more mature than ours.It has been widened to the structure of capital flows and trade between economies and other fields.Previous papers made researches on the relationship between population aging and international trade from a national level,which lack empirical analysis of the industries.Innovations in this paper based on the theory of comparative advantage and factor endowments theory and Rybczynski Theorem and overlapping generations general equilibrium models and Eaton-Kortum models established by Chinese and foreign scholars as the theoretical basis,using empirical methods to explore the impact of population aging on China's export manufacturing industries' comparative advantage,which is instructive to explore manufacturing industry exports.The full text contains five chapters.The first chapter is the introduction,mainly introduces the background and significance of the article,the relevant review of the existing population aging and manufacturing papers,innovation and insufficiency.The second chapter is theoretical analysis,using the theory of comparative advantage and factor endowments theory and Rybczynski Theorem basis,introduces the main research results in an aging population and export comparative advantage,including the overlapping generations general equilibrium models and Eaton-Kortum models.The third chapter analyzes the quo and reasons of China's aging population and the Competitiveness of manufacturing industries through Revealed Comparative Advantage Index and Net Export-Performance Ratio comparative advantage index analysis from the perspective of endowments.The fourth part is the empirical analysis,discussing the relationship of aging population,endowments,the export structure,R&D investment,environmental regulation and other factors with China's manufacturing exports comparative advantage.The fifth part is a summary of empirical and theoretical research,and put forward practical policy recommendations based on the findings.Through theoretical and empirical analysis,we get the following conclusions:First,the lower fertility levels,extended life expectancy,rising median age and the elderly dependency ratio,child aged ratio reflect the deepening degrees of aging accelerated.China is facing a severe crisis of population aging,which challenges the economic and social transformation.Second,the current China's manufacturing industry as a whole has a strong advantage in exports.Although the comparative advantages of labor-intensive industries are decline,the manufacturing sector still occupies an important position.The comparative advantages in capital-intensive industries gradually increase.Third,the effect of population aging of on demographic structure will be reflected in the quality and quantity of labor supply through labor force participation rate and labor productivity,thereby affecting the cost advantage and comparative advantage of the industry.Fourth,empirical analysis with Chinese manufacturing industry data finds increasing the degree of population aging will enhance export comparative advantage of capital-intensive industries and undermine the comparative advantage of labor-intensive industries. |
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