Research On The Change Of Export Comparative Advantage In China In The Context Of Population Aging

With the rapid development of global economy,people's life expectancy is rising,and the fertility willingness of young population is gradually declining,which will result in that countries around the world will face the challenge of population aging.Population aging will affect labor supply,people's consumption preference and saving habits,thus changing a country's relative abundance of factors of labor and capital,which affects the country's export comparative advantage in turn.Before policy of planned birth,China's birth rate was higher,so China had a plenty of young labor force and exported labor-intensive products under the guidance of traditional trade theories.The sixth census data shows "the proportion of population aging over 65 reached 8.87%,and the proportion of population aging over 60 reached 13.26%",the annual growth rate of wage rose from 6.3%in 2009 to 9.8%in 2012 and the proportion of the labor declined since 2010.In the background of disappearance of the demographic dividend,China's competitiveness of labor-intensive products in the international market continues began to weaken,so there is no doubt that population aging affects China's status in the international market.Therefore,the impact of population aging on China's export comparative advantage becomes the focus of this paper.In 2000,the proportion of population aging over 65 reached 7.13%,which indicated that China had stepped into aging countries.However,compared with developed countries,China stepped into the aging world for the short time,so the study of population aging is just starting and concentrate on the current situation of population aging trends,reasons,consumer behavior,economic growth,savings and pension.Study on the relation between population aging and international trade mainly concentrated on the country level.Most of researches are about the impact of aging on the international trade balance,but researches about the effect on the export structure and export comparative advantage are less.This paper is based on the empirical analysis of Chinese provincial data to analyze the impact of population aging on the comparative advantage of Chinese export.Innovation in this paper is based on the theory of factor endowments theory,using empirical methods and theories to analyze the influence of China's population aging on the export's comparative advantage,which is instructive to explore China's exports.Downsides are to integrate existing the demographic and comparative advantage theories and ignore missing data.The full paper includes five chapters.The first chapter is the introduction,including the background of the article,the relevant review of the existing papers on the relation between international trade and population aging,innovation and insufficiency.The second chapter is the theories,mainly introducing the factor endowments theory and trying to introduce the influence mechanism of aging on comparative advantage from the perspective of labor supply and society's demand.The third chapter analyzes the growing trend of China's aging population and the development of export's comparative advantage from the perspective of endowments.The fourth part is the empirical analysis,discussing the relationship of aging population,endowments,GDP,education,R&D investment,FDI and other factors with China's exports comparative advantage.The fifth part is to summarize the whole article and put forward practical policy recommendations based on the findings..According to the analysis from this paper,we get the following conclusions:First,both elderly dependency ratio and child aged ratio reflect the deepening degree of aging accelerated in China.China's population aging has challenged the economy.Second,China's export commodity structure has changed since 2005,and the first major categories exports of manufactured goods changed from the low technology manufactured goods to high technology goods.After the year of 2000,the export proportion of capital-intensive products is more than that of labor-intensive products,which shows that the comparative advantage of capital-intensive products is growing.Third,theory and empirical analysis with Chinese province data find that population aging of China has forced China's export structure to reverse and promoted the export comparative advantage to shift towards capital-intensive goods.