The Impact Of Population Aging On The Export Structure Of China's Manufacturing Industry

Since 2000,China has entered the traditional stage of population aging.Since then,the degree of population aging has been deepening year by year.The rate of population aging and the number of elderly people aged 60 and above have ranked first in the world.The growing ageing of the population has changed the demographic structure of our country,which has caused the rapid disappearance of the demographic dividend that was previously conducive to economic growth and has hindered rapid economic growth and healthy development.How to deal effectively with the negative economic and social impacts of population ageing has become increasingly urgent and important.Realistic development is an important basis for theoretical and policy research,but what is inconsistent with the rapid aging of China's population and the status of the largest country in the world in terms of the number of elderly people is that not only domestic scholars have started their research on population ageing relatively late.The depth of research and the richness of research results also have great room for improvement.Limited literature retrieval has found that the research of Chinese scholars on population ageing mainly focuses on the phenomenon and development trends of population ageing,the impact of population ageing on financial development and economic growth,and the balance of trade at the national level.However,there are few researches on the changes of the population aging to the advantages of import and export and the improvement of manufacturing competitiveness.For a large manufacturing producer and exporter like China,the transfer of the comparative advantages of manufacturing and the impact on imports and exports can not only clarify the mechanism and ways of the impact of population ageing on manufacturing at the theoretical level.The research also helps to put forward policies and suggestions to promote the competitiveness of our manufacturing industry.Based on the above analysis,this paper systematically combs the development course,reasons,current situation and characteristics of China's aging population,and analyzes the export trade situation of China's manufacturing industry in recent years.From 2009 to 2016,we selected 26 subsectors of China's manufacturing industry from 28 provinces(cities,autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government)to establish an econometric model by measuring the degree of population ageing,and empirically analyze the impact of population ageing on the structure of manufacturing exports.This paper discusses the effects,ways and mechanisms of the aging population on the export structure of manufacturing industry from the three intermediary paths of the quality of labor force,wage level and consumption level,and puts forward the policy suggestions for optimizing the export structure of manufacturing industry in China.The innovation of this paper can be summed up in two aspects.First,the combination of demography and international trade studies,based on the theory of factor endowment,using the panel data at the provincial level to empirically analyze the impact of the aging population of our country on the export structure of the manufacturing industry,has a certain degree of theoretical innovation.Second,through the use of two different measures of population ageing,this paper discusses the ways in which population ageing can promote the transformation of China's manufacturing exports.And using the intermediary effect model to analyze the mechanism of worker quality,wage level and consumption level in the process of population aging to promote the optimization of manufacturing export structure,and put forward corresponding policy measures,which has strong practical significance.This article includes five chapters in structure.The first chapter is the introduction.This paper briefly describes the background and significance of research,research methods,innovation and research prospects.The second chapter is literature review and impact mechanism analysis.Through combing the existing literature on the aging of the population on the labor market,consumer market,international trade impact,summing up research results,the development of existing research needs to be supplemented and improved.The literature combs and finds that the existing literature has less research on the impact of population aging on the export structure of manufacturing industry and the research is insufficient.Therefore,this paper puts forward the theoretical assumption of the impact of population aging on the export structure of manufacturing industry.The third chapter mainly uses statistical data to analyze the aging of population and the export history and current situation of manufacturing industry.This paper introduces the basis of the structure of manufacturing exports and the manufacturing exports at the national level.History,current situation and development trend.The fourth chapter uses the provincial panel data to verify the effects of population aging on manufacturing export structure and intermediary effects,and uses the results of different indicators of population age structure to test the robustness of its empirical evidence.Empirical results show that population ageing will promote the export comparative advantage of capital-intensive industries and influence them through three paths: wage level,worker quality and consumption level.Chapter 5 summarizes the results of the empirical analysis,and puts forward some policy suggestions for optimizing the export structure of China's manufacturing industry based on the previous analysis.Through analysis and research,this paper concludes that: First,population aging influences the comparative advantage of export through changing the structure of factor endowment in China,and then has an impact on the transformation of the export structure of manufacturing industry;The second is that the study of intermediary effects verifies the theoretical hypothesis put forward in this paper,provides a possible influence path for the study,and empirically tests that the aging of the population will affect the export structure by affecting the quality of workers,wage levels,and consumption levels.Based on the results of the previous analysis and in view of the trend that the aging of China's population will further deepen,this paper puts forward some suggestions that are beneficial to the healthy development of population and trade.These include: promoting industrial transformation and upgrading through industrial transformation,further liberalizing fertility policies to improve population structure,changing trade development patterns,and creating a good trading environment.