Measurement And Dynamic Prediction Of The Talent Congregation's Contribution To Economic Growth

In today's industrialization and information society,as fixed assets,human resources,land,science,technology and other elements,talent as a resource,has become a necessary core elements of social and economic operation.Since the reform and opening up in China,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and other regions' economic has maintained a leading position,which is closely connected with their high level of talent congregation and talent congregation ability.However,with the rapid development of social economy,due to the fast process of talent congregation,problems are arising gradually,such as the imbalance of human resources and economic development,the uneven distribution of talent,the decrease of regional environmental carrying capacity.Therefore,the Government should pay attention to the balance of talent flow and the talent effectiveness when promoting the development of the talent policy.The meaning of talent gathering includes two aspects,one is the congregation behavior,which is a dynamic process;the second is the level of congregation,which is a kind of static state.However,most authors see it as a kind of static state and discuss the factors of talent congregation and the relationship with industrial congregation or economic growth theoretically.Due to the subjective initiative,self-value-added,regional congregation and other characteristics of human resources,talent congregation system should be expressed as a dynamic,complex system.According to the characteristics of talent flow,from the aspect of talent congregation,this paper on one hand clarifies the main line from the human resources to the economic growth,realizes the quantitative measure of the contribution of talent congregation to local economic growth.On the other hand,according to the historical data of the region,this paper predicts the level of talent congregation,studies the key influencing factors for the further dynamic forecasting.In the static research of talent congregation,this paper uses the talent capital as the intermediate and follows the "talent congregation-talent capital-economic growth"(C-C-E)talent value-transform model to study the talent congregation's contribution to local economic growth.First,figure out the talent congregation and talent capital on the base of panel data of Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou from 1982 to 2013.Then measure the talent capital contribution rate on the economic growth by the expand Cobb-Douglas production function.The study found that,due to the difference of the talent effectiveness and the talent regional distribution,the talent congregation did not strictly change positively with the talent capital contribution rate.Beijing has the highest level of talent congregation but the lowest of the contribution rate.Shanghai's talent congregation level ranks the second and it creates the highest contribution rate.Guangzhou has the lowest level of talent congregation but its contribution rate ranks the second.In the dynamic research of talent congregation,this paper takes the influence of policy environment,living environment,educational environment and economic environment on the city's talent congregation into consideration,uses system dynamics to simulate PLEET system,predicts the level of talent congregation and analyzes the importance of each influencing factor.First,the PLEET system framework is established,and simulated by using the data of Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen.Then,the talent concentration level is forecasted from 2014 to 2020,and the key influencing factors are recognized.Finally,according to the key factors,targeted strategies are put forward.The results show that: Due to the decrease of the living environment,by 2020,Beijing and Shanghai will have the highest level of talents congregation.Due to the lack of economic momentum,Guangzhou will have the lowest level of talent congregation.Taking appropriate measures can effectively improve local talent agglomeration level.Through sensitivity analysis,we found that the same factor has the different impact on different cities.Finally,according to the two results above,this paper puts forward four policy suggestions,which can provide reference for the government,enterprises and relevant departments to evaluate the formulation of talent policy and the evaluation of the talent efficiency.