The Empirical Study On The Influence Of Population Aging On The Income And Expenditure Gap Of Basic Endowment Insurance Fund In China

Along with the "new normal" of the economy,the Chinese population has also entered a "new normal" in the transition,showing a slowing of population growth,a low population fertility rate and an aging population trend.Among them,population aging is the most important performance and urgent problem in China's population transition,and the deepening of population aging will bring great pressure to economic development and social stability.The old-age security is the most closely related to the elderly population in the social security,and solves the problem of population aging by solving the half of the population old-age security.The income and expenditure of the Endowment Insurance Fund is directly related to whether the elderly can obtain the amount of pension in time.With the deepening of China's population aging,the future of China's population,pension insurance fund and the operation of the aging population will have an impact on the endowment insurance funds has become a major concern of the Government and academia.On the basis of reviewing and combing the related literatures and basic theories of population aging and endowment insurance,this paper firstly analyzes the current situation of population aging and Pension fund income and expenditure in China.Second,By using the system GMM method,the paper empirically analyses and examines the influence of population aging on the income and expenditure of the Basic Endowment Insurance Fund of Urban employees.Thirdly,the PDE model is used to forecast the population and structure of China under the low,middle and high birth rate of 2015-2050.Based on the labor participation rate,the future labor supply scale and structure are forecasted;Finally,through the establishment of the Basic Endowment Insurance fund revenue and expenditure model,the future Endowment Insurance fund income and expenditure gap is forecasted and analyzed.The following basic conclusions are drawn from the study:First,the change of the age structure of China's population is speeding up,and the problem of "aging" and "Little Child" is highlighted.China's basic Endowment Insurance fund income growth rate is lower than the corresponding expenditure growth,in the future may appear to receive.Second,China's aging population will have a significant negative impact on the balance of the Basic Endowment Insurance Fund.With the aging of the population and the improvement of the old-age dependency ratio,the surplus of the pension fund will be reduced,even the future will form the fund debt,which is not conducive to the sustainable development of the Fund.Third,the population forecasting model shows that the population and structural differences of three different fertility schemes increase with the time span.The increase in fertility can postpone the peak of population until around 2035,while the old age dependency ratio is slightly lower due to the increase of the child dependency ratio,but the aging pressure is still urgent and significant.The overall labor participation rate and the supply of the age-appropriate labor force decreased,the participation rate of older workers aged 60 and above increased after 2025 years;High fertility rates have enabled the supply of young workers to rebound around 2040.Finally,the fertility rate can affect the size of the balance of income and expenditure by influencing the proportion of the employees and the retired workers,but it cannot change the point of the fund gap and the widening trend of the gap.Before and after 2020,when the Basic Endowment Insurance fund for the first time appeared,the fund gap in 2050 will continue to expand to more than 50 trillion yuan.