A Study On The Impact Of Population Age Structure On The Evolution Of China’s Export Comparative Advantage

For a long time,China has occupied a comparative advantage in the export of laborintensive products by virtue of the demographic dividend.Labor-intensive products account for a large share of production and exports,and the export destinations are mainly developed countries.However,since the 21 st century,with the declining fertility rate and increasing life expectancy,the demographic dividend has continued to decline and the cost advantage of labor-intensive industries has continued to weaken.At the same time,due to the limitations of production technologies,China’s capital-intensive products,especially high value-added products,do not yet have the competitiveness to export to developed countries.China is experiencing the transition stage of export comparative advantage from labor-intensive products to capital-intensive and technology-intensive products.At the critical period when China’s export comparative advantage is facing the transition,the age structure of China’s population is also undergoing important changes.The change in population age structure will directly change the quantity of labor supply,and at the same time affect the per capital stock through the different consumption and saving habits of the population at each age level,which will change the relative abundance of factors and ultimately have an impact on the comparative advantage of exports and the structure of export commodities.The research on population age structure and export comparative advantage began in developed countries that have entered the aging society earlier.Western scholars have derived the conclusion that the deepening of aging is beneficial to the export of capitalintensive products through theoretical models and verified by data.However,China’s large population base,the low but rapid pace of ageing,and the fact that China is at a critical stage in the transformation of its comparative advantage in exports from labor-intensive to capital-intensive products,means that in the time when China’s capital-intensive products do not yet have the ability to export to developed countries on a large scale,the formation of export comparative advantage depends mainly on the development of non-traditional markets.If the change in the age structure of the population promotes the growth of China’s exports of capital-intensive products to non-traditional target markets,it means that the comparative advantages of capital-intensive products have been enhanced,and the changes in the age structure of the population have promoted the evolution of China’s comparative advantages.Therefore,against the background of important changes in the age structure of China’s population,this article attempts to explore the question of whether the changing age structure of the population has advanced the evolution of China’s comparative advantage from the perspective of diversified export markets.The main conclusions from the study are as follows: first,with the deepening of aging and childlessness,capital-intensive industries have more cost advantages compared with labor-intensive products,and although aging and childlessness will bring pressure on labor supply and social burden,they will,to a certain extent,have a reverse effect on China’s industrial upgrading and realize the transformation of China’s export comparative advantage;Second,considering that China’s capital-intensive products do not yet have a competitive advantage for export,China’s cost advantage in capital-intensive products brought about by the change in population age structure does promote the export of capital goods to non-traditional markets,and the aging population and fewer children accelerate the evolution of China’s comparative advantage,helping capital-intensive products to embark on an export path that is first easy and then difficult.