The Birth Rate Prediction And The Influence On The Age Structure Of Population Under The Universal Two-child Policy

Since the reform and opening-up,the rapid development of chinese economy and the improvement of people's living standard largely thanks to demographic factors.Meanwhile,there is a low birth rate,labor shortages,gender imbalance,aging of population and so on in our country.The age structure of our population has changed dramatically.In this case,in 2016 our country government rolled out a universal two-child policy to improve population structure and promote balanced development of the population.More and more reserch show that age structure of our population have an important influence on economic and social development.therefore,it is necessary to study the influence of population age structure under the universal two-child policy.In the view of this,the article is based on survey data on fertility intentions and statistical yearbook data,using the Lee-carter model and bayesian estimation method and through the unimplement the universal two-child policy and the implementation of the two-child policy,to predict the future birth,population and age structure of China.The Results showed that universal two-child policy will improve population peak,will not bring the huge increase birth rate and population sharp rebound;have little effect on improving the structure of the population and delaying the attenuation rate of labor supply,cannot fundamentally reverse the imbalance between labor supply and demand and the trend towards an aging population.therefore,universal two-child policy is not the end of the fertility policy adjustment,In the short term,the government should actively introduce corresponding measures,fully implementing the two-child policy,improve the social endowment security system;in the long term,the government should gradually universal three-children policy even independent fertility policy,to achievesustainable and coordinated development of population and economy.