Study On The Scale And Demand Of Pre-Tertiary Education Under The “Universal Two-Child” Policy In Shandong Province

Population factor is a basic factor in the development of education.Population size plays an important role in the scale of education,and population changes will affect the allocation of educational resources.Grasping the development trend of education scale is the premise work for effectively allocating educational resources and avoiding waste of resources.It is also a primary concern of relevant education and decision-making departments.China's implementation of the “universal two-child” policy from the New Year's Day in 2016 will have a certain impact on the trajectory of China's demographic changes after the implementation of the policy,which will in turn affect the education scale and the demand for educational resources.For all levels of education,it will be affected first.is basic education.Compared with other provinces in the country,Shandong Province's response to the “ universal two-child ” policy is more obvious.This paper uses basic population and education data and sets the corresponding predictors to predict the size of the school-age population in each segment of basic education in 2017-2040 in Shandong Province after implementation of the “universal two-child” policy.Based on this,it predicts basic education.The educational scale of the segment and the demand for educational resources also analyzed the basic characteristics of its future changes.The study found that after the implementation of the “universal two-child” policy,the school-age population in each segment of elementary education in Shandong Province will usher in a larger fluctuation one after another.The size of the school-age population in the pre-school education stage will rise rapidly when the policy exerts its effect,and then Decline rapidly and finally slowly rise again;The size of the school-aged population from primary school to high school maintained a steady rise for a period of time before the policy exerted its effect.After the effect of the policy,the scale quickly expanded and remained stable for a short period of time.Finally,it continued to decline.Each school segment was based on the general trend.The year fluctuates slightly.Due to the large fluctuations in the size of the school-aged population,similar changes have taken place in the educational scale and educational resource requirements for each school segment.First,on the scale of basic education,each academic section will usher in a “peak” at different times.The “peak” years of the scale of elementary school students in each school year will appear in 2021,2024,2030,and 2033,The maximum size of students in school compared with 2016 was 11.426 million in pre-school education,1.27 million in primary school,913,300 in junior high school,and 12.32 million in high school.The educational scale of each school segment reached the “peak”.It quickly fell back and stabilized.The ups and downs of the education scale are mainly caused by the effects of the “comprehensive two-child” policy.At the beginning of the policy implementation,the rapid release of the birth-piling effect of women of child-bearing age resulted in a rapid increase in the birth population,and the birth population was released with the release of the birth-piling effect.The scale began to shrink.Secondly,with regard to the demand for basic education resources,each school segment shows a different degree of demand under the premise of basically the same trend and the changes in education scale.During the entire forecasting period,the demand for kindergartens and preschool teachers during the pre-primary education stage was the most prosperous,the current level was insufficient to meet future demands,and the current basic school and the future demand in the senior high school stage remained in a balanced relationship,but the students in the senior high school stage Compared to the declining situation,there will be a large gap between the number of existing high school full-time teachers and future demand.In addition,due to the “ups and downs” of the changes in the education scale of each academic segment,there will be inevitable structural conflicts in the supply and demand of educational resources in the future.Finally,the article combines the future development trend of the scale of basic education and the demand for educational resources in Shandong Province and discusses the corresponding countermeasures in order to help basic education planning.