Study On Carbon Emissions Effect Of Urumqi City's Land Use Change

Based on the qualitative analysis of Urumqi's land use change, this paper estimated the carbon emissions of diffierent type land use, and analysed the trend of its carbon emission intensity. By using the improved grey relational degree model, environmental Kuznets curve model, and Tapio decoupling index model,it analysed the association effect between land use structure change, economic development and land carbon emission in Urumqi city. Using LMDI method analysed the influence factors of land use carbon emission in Urumqi. Finally, using Pearson correlation model verified the correlation between industrial structure change and land use carbon emission. Through the above research, the main research results are as follows:(1) The land use carbon emissions are significantly affected by the carbon emissions of construction land. The total carbon emissions have increased from 643.42×104 tons in 1996 to 2161.05×104 tons in 2013, with an average annual increase rate of 7.39%. The carbon emission intensity of unit area land is increasing per year, so as the carbon emissions intensity of per capita, but the carbon emission intensity of ten thousand yuan GDP is decreasing year by year.(2) The effect of land use structure change on carbon emissions are significantly different. The effect of construction land on carbon emissions is very obvious, it has a strong promoting effect. And the carbon sink capacity of agricultural land is weakening, the role of carbon emission suppression has significantly decreased.(3) Among the influencing factors, the contribution of economic development to total carbon emission is 142.42%, the following is land use change (45.11%) and population scale (33.1%), economic growth is the main factor that causes carbon emissions and it has a significant promoting effect on the growth of land use carbon emission, verified the existence of environmental Cruznez curve. Also, the economic growth and land carbon emissions decoupling phenomenon has a trend from weak decoupling to decoupling, it indicates that the promotion of economic growth on land use carbon emissions is declining. The improvement of energy efficiency and energy structure has an important role in reducing carbon emissions, the contribution of economic development to total carbon emission is -82.74% and -37.89%..(4) Among different industrial sectors, correlation between construction industry and land carbon emissions are the highest, reaching 0.976, the following is agriculture (including forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries) (0.955), the financial industry (0.947). The high correlation between construction industry and land use carbon emission is mainly caused by the strong negative externalities in the construction production process. Agriculture has a strong correlation effect is mainly reflected in the process of agricultural modernization, such as fertilizer, pesticides and other agricultural materials, as well as the improvement of agricultural mechanization level.