Energy Rebound Effect Analysis Based On Technological Progress In China

Energy was the material basis and original power for social and economic development, energy issues was crucial to the stability of the whole society. With the rapid development of world economy, demand for energy was growing fast, countries had proposed relevant policies to alleviate contradiction between the energy supply and demand. As an important part of the world economy, Chinese energy consumption amount reached 4.5 billion tons of standard coal in 2015, The gap between energy supply and demand in China reached-66000 million tons of standard coal in 2014, the data showed that China's economy was to a large extent driven by the energy inputs, Excessive consumption of energy could also cause environmental pollution, in order to reduce the total energy consumption, China had proposed various policies to promote technological progress and improve energy efficiency, but with energy efficiency increased, the expected energy savings did not fully realise, the exitence of Energy Rebound Effect put a serious impact on energy-saving effect of the policy. With energy efficiency improved by technological progress, prices of energy product would reduce, consumer's income would indirectly increase, thus technological progress and improved energy efficiency counld promote economic development and generate additional energy consumption, the energy saved by improved energy efficiency is partially offset by additional energy consumption. This lost part of the potential energy savings is defined as the Rebound Effect, therefore, to understand the principle of Energy Rebound Effect and its influence factors has an important significance.This paper define and analysis Energy Rebound Effect from the point of view of economics.Considering the spatial correlation of regional economic and structure of the industrial,paper respectively use spatial error model to estimate the contribution rate of technological progress and LDMI Method to estemate technical effect of changes in the value of Chinese energy intensity,Based on 1996--2013 China's 30 provincial panel data, China's energy Rebound Effect showed that:China is in the second phase of the Rebound Effect, namely partial rebound, there is still much room for improvement of energy-saving effect. Finally, based on the theoretical analysis and results of empirical research, paper propose some policy recommendations.Paper consists of the following three parts:firstly, explain the definition of energy Eebound Effect and mechanism from the perspective of the macro and micro. Rebound Effect is decomposed into direct and indirect Rebound Effect and overall Rebound Effect, describle and analysis China's economic, industrial structure and energy consumption. Secondly, based on technological progress, build China's energy Eebound Effect measurement model and do empirical analysis.Finally, based on the above theoretical and empirical analysis, pape proposes some policy recommendations about reducding energy consumption in China.